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The Falchion Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +5.28$

Invest 9.63$

Average return 14.91$

ROI +54.9%

Chance of profit 92%

With float: invest at least 24.99 $, profit at most −10.08 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×9

MP9 | Spy Prototype

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

8.92 $

at 0.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.63 $ +5.28 (+54.9%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 62%
Losing outcome 8%
About break-even 30%

in profit

best

AWP | Black Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29.75 $ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11.52 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

Nova | Smart Gun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13.22 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

6.15 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18.63 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

9.08 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

5.10 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

1.12 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +3.11 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.55 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Spy Tech Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 29 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2116585 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.37$ · invest 9.24$
Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074590 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2111123 · The Ascent Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.33$ · invest 9.79$
P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2117628 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.32$ · invest 9.48$
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076552 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2137598 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.32$ · invest 9.59$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2136566 · The Radiant Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.30$ · invest 9.65$
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2128619 · The Gamma Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.29$ · invest 9.43$
rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074193 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2112426 · The Boreal Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.28$ · invest 9.29$
XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2138109 · The Shadow Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.24$ · invest 9.92$
rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2130844 · The Harlequin Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.21$ · invest 9.77$
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2132763 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.21$ · invest 9.21$
Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076827 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2126248 · The Fracture Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.20$ · invest 9.25$
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2123198 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.19$ · invest 9.19$
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076644 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2121018 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.19$ · invest 9.32$
Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074729 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2127182 · The Gallery Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.18$ · invest 9.60$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076832 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2135842 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.18$ · invest 9.42$
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2106981 · The Achroma Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.17$ · invest 9.68$
P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2135444 · The Phoenix Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.15$ · invest 9.68$
MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2138831 · The Spectrum Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.15$ · invest 9.43$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2114887 · The CS20 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.15$ · invest 9.62$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076723 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2138688 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.14$ · invest 9.33$
SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2113871 · The Breakout Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.14$ · invest 9.46$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2136932 · The Recoil Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.11$ · invest 9.30$
Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2119586 · The Clutch Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.11$ · invest 9.31$
SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076609 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2138994 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.07$ · invest 9.93$
pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2137292 · The Revolution Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 5.06$ · invest 9.32$
SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076915 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2129310 · The Genesis Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 4.95$ · invest 9.71$
rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2122072 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 4.93$ · invest 9.74$
UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2111744 · The Bank Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 4.84$ · invest 10.55$
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075050 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2125401 · The Fever Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 4.83$ · invest 9.61$
MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076829

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build