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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +5 247.25₸

Invest 6 788.32₸

Average return 12 035.57₸

ROI +77.3%

Chance of profit 47%

With float: invest at least 17 296.93 ₸, profit at most −5 261.36 ₸

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 995 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

323.54 ₸

at 323.54

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Murky

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

338.78 ₸

at 338.78

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

6 126.00 ₸

at 765.75

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 788.32 ₸ +5 247.25 (+77.3%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 53%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

4 070.83 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

38 977.86 ₸ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

13 701.44 ₸ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 148.31 ₸ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

2 790.93 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 456.71 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

4 118.51 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

2 313.50 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

507.90 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2 655.75 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 851.04 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 29 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2134952 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 290.64₸ · invest 6 746.57₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 951 ₸ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2118534 · The Chroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 274.43₸ · invest 6 863.84₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 968 ₸ rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2111173 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 268.57₸ · invest 6 862.83₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 974 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2117658 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 265.71₸ · invest 6 721.82₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 976 ₸ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074332 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074332 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2136625 · The Radiant Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 253.56₸ · invest 6 797.67₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 989 ₸ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2112473 · The Boreal Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 247.25₸ · invest 6 633.04₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 995 ₸ rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2128648 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 240.14₸ · invest 6 710.12₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 037 ₸ rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2130895 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 212.75₸ · invest 6 850.27₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 029 ₸ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2107024 · The Achroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 194.33₸ · invest 6 809.38₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 048 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074376 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074376 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2138866 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 188.18₸ · invest 6 699.64₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 075 ₸ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2138720 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 184.76₸ · invest 6 651.37₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 057 ₸ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074323 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2113896 · The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 183.40₸ · invest 6 711.72₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 137 ₸ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2139164 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 146.93₸ · invest 6 589.96₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 738 ₸ rare inputs

FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074143 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074143 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2104705 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 134.44₸ · invest 7 854.47₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 377 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075743 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075743 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2138143 · The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 099.18₸ · invest 6 645.82₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 786 ₸ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074093 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074093 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2133862 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 056.81₸ · invest 6 869.03₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 993 ₸ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Vendetta (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2132232 · The Italy Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 027.82₸ · invest 6 756.99₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 214 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2139223 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 5 018.46₸ · invest 6 821.03₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 867 ₸ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2131982 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5 008.09₸ · invest 7 131.69₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 234 ₸ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074002 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074002 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2109608 · The Arabesque Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 992.38₸ · invest 6 673.40₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 893 ₸ rare inputs

FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2139079 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 992.32₸ · invest 6 665.22₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 893 ₸ rare inputs

AUG | Signal Scanner (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2137957 · The Safehouse Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 990.73₸ · invest 6 786.02₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 251 ₸ rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2139215 · The Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 958.22₸ · invest 6 781.96₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 284 ₸ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074267 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2123637 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 921.16₸ · invest 6 534.21₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 964 ₸ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Brass (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2136266 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 917.13₸ · invest 6 621.33₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 968 ₸ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2108925 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 902.66₸ · invest 7 033.61₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 335 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074908 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2119624 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 880.86₸ · invest 6 574.35₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 005 ₸ rare inputs

MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074143 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074143 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2121059 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 880.46₸ · invest 6 616.15₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 052 ₸ rare inputs

SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074801 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074801 instead of 0.074389
Craft 2138372 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4 761.73₸ · invest 6 856.15₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 124 ₸ rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074191 instead of 0.074389; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074191 instead of 0.074389

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build