The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft was not checked against the market at night (only the best are) or there were not enough listings. The numbers below are at average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will count by live listings right now.

Average profit +1 609.97₽

Invest 4 719.54₽

Average return 6 329.51₽

ROI +34.1%

Chance of profit 80%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 12 177.61₽ · profit at most −5 848.09₽ (−48.0%) · chance of profit at most 0%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 121.06 → 267.54 ₽

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) × 8 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.59 4 598.48 → 11 910.06 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −4 604 ₽

+ a third collection

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

121.06 ₽

at 60.53

Steam

×8

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0225

4 598.48 ₽

at 574.81

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 719.54 ₽ +1 609.97 (+34.1%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 218.79 ₽ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Splash

Factory New

float up to 0.061621

6 336.04 ₽ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 050.20 ₽ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

522.14 ₽ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 582.12 ₽ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

770.51 ₽ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

432.82 ₽ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

1 298.98 ₽ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 271.28 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 604.49 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 30 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2139387 · The eSports 2013 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 821.61₽ · invest 4 789.03₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 742 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022514 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2104742 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 783.68₽ · invest 5 046.67₽
profit on prices without salesat least −5 047 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022582 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2136333 · The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 560.35₽ · invest 4 810.48₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 609 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022514 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2130913 · The Harlequin Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 555.19₽ · invest 4 742.72₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 614 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2132874 · The Kilowatt Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 555.15₽ · invest 4 648.74₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 614 ₽ rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022502 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2126346 · The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 553.63₽ · invest 4 654.94₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 616 ₽ rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2127302 · The Gallery Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 551.41₽ · invest 4 713.66₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 652 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022503 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2137043 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 539.24₽ · invest 4 663.68₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 630 ₽ rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2139042 · The Sport & Field Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 532.27₽ · invest 4 770.60₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 637 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2137407 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 530.66₽ · invest 4 666.82₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 639 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022521 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2121134 · The Danger Zone Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 519.41₽ · invest 4 700.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 667 ₽ rare inputs

MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022514 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2129392 · The Genesis Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 511.59₽ · invest 4 732.82₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 658 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2122169 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 508.94₽ · invest 4 737.48₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 660 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2125499 · The Fever Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 492.05₽ · invest 4 715.64₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 677 ₽ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2109629 · The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 469.90₽ · invest 4 937.30₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 699 ₽ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2102758 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 454.09₽ · invest 4 491.67₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 055 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2139102 · The Spy Tech Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 439.01₽ · invest 4 998.48₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 795 ₽ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2128030 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 430.30₽ · invest 4 245.40₽
profit on prices without salesat least −3 968 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2131559 · The Horizon Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 402.34₽ · invest 4 255.06₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 048 ₽ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2134981 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 394.74₽ · invest 4 181.83₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 003 ₽ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2138613 · The Snakebite Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 391.97₽ · invest 4 147.45₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 022 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2118580 · The Chroma Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 385.64₽ · invest 4 247.65₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 012 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2111196 · The Ascent Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 382.35₽ · invest 4 247.08₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 016 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2117722 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 380.75₽ · invest 4 167.94₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 017 ₽ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022607 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2137679 · The Revolver Case Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 380.74₽ · invest 4 194.01₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 036 ₽ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2103655 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 374.35₽ · invest 6 650.06₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 777 ₽ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 6 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022623 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2134615 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 374.02₽ · invest 5 178.42₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 813 ₽ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2136658 · The Radiant Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 373.93₽ · invest 4 210.51₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 024 ₽ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2112499 · The Boreal Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 370.39₽ · invest 4 118.11₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 028 ₽ rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2128705 · The Gamma Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 366.40₽ · invest 4 161.37₽
profit on prices without salesat least −4 051 ₽ rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022502

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build