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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +18.96$

Invest 55.59$

Average return 74.55$

ROI +34.1%

Chance of profit 80%

With float: invest at least 143.43 $, profit at most −68.88 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −54 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

1.43 $

at 0.71

Steam

×8

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0225

54.16 $

at 6.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 55.59 $ +18.96 (+34.1%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

132.14 $ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Splash

Factory New

float up to 0.061621

74.63 $ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

106.60 $ 26.67%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

6.15 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

18.64 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

9.08 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

5.10 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

15.30 $ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +14.97 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +18.90 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 30 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2139387 · The eSports 2013 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 21.46$ · invest 56.41$
profit on prices without salesat least −56 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022514 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2104742 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 21.01$ · invest 59.44$
profit on prices without salesat least −59 $ rare inputs

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022582 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2136333 · The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.38$ · invest 56.66$
profit on prices without salesat least −54 $ rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022514 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2130913 · The Harlequin Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.32$ · invest 55.86$
profit on prices without salesat least −54 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2132874 · The Kilowatt Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.32$ · invest 54.76$
profit on prices without salesat least −54 $ rare inputs

Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022502 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2126346 · The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.30$ · invest 54.83$
profit on prices without salesat least −54 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2127302 · The Gallery Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.27$ · invest 55.52$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022503 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2137043 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.13$ · invest 54.93$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2139042 · The Sport & Field Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.05$ · invest 56.19$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2137407 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 18.03$ · invest 54.97$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022521 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2121134 · The Danger Zone Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 17.90$ · invest 55.36$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022514 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2129392 · The Genesis Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 17.80$ · invest 55.75$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2122169 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 17.77$ · invest 55.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2125499 · The Fever Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 17.57$ · invest 55.54$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2109629 · The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 17.31$ · invest 58.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −55 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2102758 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 17.13$ · invest 52.91$
profit on prices without salesat least −48 $ rare inputs

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2139102 · The Spy Tech Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.95$ · invest 58.87$
profit on prices without salesat least −56 $ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022559 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2128030 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.85$ · invest 50.00$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2131559 · The Horizon Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.52$ · invest 50.12$
profit on prices without salesat least −48 $ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2134981 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.43$ · invest 49.26$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2138613 · The Snakebite Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.40$ · invest 48.85$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2118580 · The Chroma Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.32$ · invest 50.03$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2111196 · The Ascent Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.28$ · invest 50.02$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2117722 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.26$ · invest 49.09$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022607 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2137679 · The Revolver Case Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.26$ · invest 49.40$
profit on prices without salesat least −48 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2103655 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.19$ · invest 78.33$
profit on prices without salesat least −56 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 6 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022623 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2134615 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.18$ · invest 60.99$
profit on prices without salesat least −57 $ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2136658 · The Radiant Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.18$ · invest 49.59$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022591 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2112499 · The Boreal Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.14$ · invest 48.51$
profit on prices without salesat least −47 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022502
Craft 2128705 · The Gamma Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 16.09$ · invest 49.01$
profit on prices without salesat least −48 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): 7 pcs instead of 8; MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New): float at most 0.022662 instead of 0.022502

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build