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The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +11.48$

Invest 14.95$

Average return 26.44$

ROI +76.8%

Chance of profit 45%

With float: invest at least 38.10 $, profit at most −11.67 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

0.63 $

at 0.63

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

0.82 $

at 0.82

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

13.50 $

at 1.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.95 $ +11.48 (+76.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

2.52 $

at 0.63

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

2.28 $

at 0.76

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

1.65 $

at 0.82

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

1.69 $

at 1.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.13 $ +4.77 (+58.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

8.97 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

85.89 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

30.19 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6.94 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Sergeant

Field-Tested

float up to 0.162999

3.17 $ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Heat

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13.65 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Pulse

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.134999

7.39 $ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Guardian

Factory New

float up to 0.026599

4.00 $ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Prisma Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5.76 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +8.42 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 31 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2136264 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.19$ · invest 14.82$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2133861 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.09$ · invest 15.99$
profit on prices without salesat least −8 $ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2139078 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.09$ · invest 15.31$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2127966 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.09$ · invest 14.83$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2109607 · The Arabesque Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.00$ · invest 15.22$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

FAMAS | Snake Song (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2138142 · The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.95$ · invest 14.82$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2139222 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 11.91$ · invest 15.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2101950 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.90$ · invest 15.03$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163661 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074751 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2139031 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.79$ · invest 14.83$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2131507 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.75$ · invest 15.09$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2137623 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.73$ · invest 14.79$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2122100 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.72$ · invest 14.56$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2138552 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.70$ · invest 14.68$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2129334 · The Genesis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.70$ · invest 14.56$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2139163 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.70$ · invest 15.14$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2127215 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.61$ · invest 14.77$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2116612 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.57$ · invest 14.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165242 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075301 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2125428 · The Fever Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.55$ · invest 14.50$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2132796 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.55$ · invest 14.48$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2126288 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.54$ · invest 14.51$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2135867 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.53$ · invest 14.68$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2137328 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.52$ · invest 14.47$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2136969 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.52$ · invest 14.50$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2114918 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.51$ · invest 14.86$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2123231 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.51$ · invest 14.48$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2119622 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.46$ · invest 14.57$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2121057 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.46$ · invest 14.66$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162188 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074239 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2123636 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.14$ · invest 14.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2133028 · The Lake Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.11$ · invest 14.78$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163661 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074751 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2130473 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.09$ · invest 15.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165362 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075343 instead of 0.075217
Craft 2129980 · The Glove Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.08$ · invest 15.22$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ rare inputs

MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164322 instead of 0.164999; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074981 instead of 0.075217

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build