The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: this craft was not checked against the market at night (only the best are) or there were not enough listings. The numbers below are at average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will count by live listings right now.

Average profit +282.54₽

Invest 431.29₽

Average return 713.83₽

ROI +65.5%

Chance of profit 74%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 1 049.63₽ · profit at most −335.81₽ (−32.0%) · chance of profit at most 26%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 67.74 → 149.71 ₽

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 7 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.55 294.00 → 749.70 ₽

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 69.55 → 150.23 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

67.74 ₽

at 33.87

Steam

×7

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

294.00 ₽

at 42.00

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

69.55 ₽

at 69.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 431.29 ₽ +282.54 (+65.5%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

42.00 ₽

at 42.00

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

60.00 ₽

at 60.00

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

556.40 ₽

at 69.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 658.40 ₽ +43.30 (+6.6%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

67.74 ₽

at 33.87

Steam

×6

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

252.00 ₽

at 42.00

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

139.10 ₽

at 69.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 458.84 ₽ +253.47 (+55.2%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

67.74 ₽

at 33.87

Steam

×5

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

210.00 ₽

at 42.00

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

208.65 ₽

at 69.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 486.39 ₽ +224.40 (+46.1%)

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

67.74 ₽

at 33.87

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

84.00 ₽

at 42.00

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

417.30 ₽

at 69.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 569.04 ₽ +137.20 (+24.1%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 74%
Losing outcome 26%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 882.24 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.077777

214.79 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.048222

522.65 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

670.89 ₽ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.054444

700.00 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.077777

441.49 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.133111

1 274.13 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +145.95 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +214.31 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2136073 · The Prisma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 291.02₽ · invest 403.72₽
rare inputs

MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2125252 · The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 278.55₽ · invest 376.60₽
rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2129170 · The Genesis Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 277.58₽ · invest 382.17₽
rare inputs

P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2121910 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 277.30₽ · invest 381.72₽
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2138102 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 272.90₽ · invest 404.36₽
rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2137996 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 271.31₽ · invest 403.00₽
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075035 instead of 0.074073; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075035 instead of 0.074073
Craft 2109501 · The Arabesque Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 262.29₽ · invest 438.23₽
rare inputs

FAMAS | Snake Song (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build