to all crafts

The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +2.79$

Invest 7.38$

Average return 10.17$

ROI +37.8%

Chance of profit 32%

With float: invest at least 17.65 $, profit at most −7.47 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

5% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

0.40 $

at 0.40

Steam

×8

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

3.96 $

at 0.49

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

3.02 $

at 3.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.38 $ +2.79 (+37.8%)

6% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

1.60 $

at 0.40

Steam

×4

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

1.98 $

at 0.49

Steam

×2

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

6.05 $

at 3.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.62 $ +1.26 (+13.1%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 32%
Losing outcome 68%

in profit

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

22.17 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.28 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

6.16 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

7.90 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.046599

27.98 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

10.23 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Spectrum Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 only The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.84 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.82 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2138258 · The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 2.98$ · invest 7.36$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074632 instead of 0.074242; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074632 instead of 0.074242
Craft 2130374 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2.95$ · invest 6.13$
rare inputs

SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) instead of G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074073 instead of 0.074242; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074073 instead of 0.074242

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build