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The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +1 588.79₽

Invest 3 142.85₽

Average return 4 731.64₽

ROI +50.5%

Chance of profit 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 7 439.42₽ · profit at most −2 707.78₽ (−36.4%) · chance of profit at most 30%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) × 7 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.55 1 503.53 → 3 834.00 ₽

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) × 2 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1 289.68 → 2 850.19 ₽

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 349.64 → 755.22 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

10% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 10% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

1 503.53 ₽

at 214.79

Steam

×2

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

1 289.68 ₽

at 644.84

Steam

×1

P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

349.64 ₽

at 349.64

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 142.85 ₽ +1 588.79 (+50.5%)

8% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 8% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

1 503.53 ₽

at 214.79

Steam

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

644.84 ₽

at 644.84

Steam

×2

P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

699.28 ₽

at 349.64

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 847.65 ₽ +1 564.72 (+55.0%)

7% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (by listings)

Price understated: Only 7% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

176.42 ₽

at 176.42

Steam

×5

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

1 073.95 ₽

at 214.79

Steam

×4

P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

1 398.56 ₽

at 349.64

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 648.93 ₽ +1 124.91 (+42.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −154 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (by listings)

Price understated: Only 5% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×5

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

1 073.95 ₽

at 214.79

Steam

×1

P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

263.62 ₽

at 263.62

Steam

×4

P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

1 398.56 ₽

at 349.64

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 736.13 ₽ +718.45 (+26.3%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 404.66 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

float up to 0.052941

3 300.00 ₽ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

float up to 0.037646

2 720.95 ₽ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AUG | Bengal Tiger

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103529

2 000.00 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

AWP | Corticera

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074117

1 996.54 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074117

1 445.79 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Bloomstick

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103529

3 105.66 ₽ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Spectrum Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Sport & Field Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +867.50 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 408.22 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2134810 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 591.38₽ · invest 3 419.27₽
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079905 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.008667 instead of 0.007338
Craft 2123572 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 577.99₽ · invest 2 993.21₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078981 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.007858 instead of 0.007338
Craft 2137467 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 577.58₽ · invest 3 223.49₽
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.080206 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.008930 instead of 0.007338
Craft 2117491 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 573.54₽ · invest 3 128.10₽
profit on prices without salesat least −69 ₽ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.080206 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.008930 instead of 0.007338
Craft 2111051 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 536.26₽ · invest 3 253.21₽
profit on prices without salesat least −34 ₽ rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079622 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.008420 instead of 0.007338
Craft 2138208 · The Shadow Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 1 496.58₽ · invest 3 409.29₽
profit on prices without salesat least −222 ₽ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.004289 instead of 0.007338
Craft 2138245 · The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 1 433.39₽ · invest 3 734.41₽
profit on prices without salesat least −302 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079355 instead of 0.078387; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New): float at most 0.008186 instead of 0.007338

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build