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The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 484.47₴

Invest 1 091.33₴

Average return 2 575.80₴

ROI +136.0%

Chance of profit 35%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 834.54₴ · profit at most −258.74₴ (−9.1%) · chance of profit at most 32%

The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.

The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.63 1 015.48 → 2 670.70 ₴

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 75.85 → 163.84 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

+ a third collection

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

1 015.48 ₴

at 112.83

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

75.85 ₴

at 75.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 091.33 ₴ +1 484.47 (+136.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −189 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×3

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

338.49 ₴

at 112.83

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

303.77 ₴

at 101.26

Steam

×4

MP9 | Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

630.67 ₴

at 157.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 272.93 ₴ +445.57 (+35.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −468 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)

Price understated: Only 6% of listings fit, and listings with a rare float cost more. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.

×2

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

225.66 ₴

at 112.83

Steam

×3

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

303.77 ₴

at 101.26

Steam

×5

MP9 | Dart

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

788.33 ₴

at 157.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 317.76 ₴ +257.85 (+19.6%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 65%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

370.63 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

529.48 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 479.36 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.022446

403.24 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.008510

3 861.00 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.007233

1 357.21 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

311.86 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +947.77 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 232.72 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Train 2025 Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 20 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2139191 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 1 535.30₴ · invest 1 319.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2139203 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 510.26₴ · invest 1 150.56₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007369 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2104679 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 503.57₴ · invest 1 196.03₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007547 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2108086 · The Ancient Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 480.71₴ · invest 1 201.69₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2103612 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 457.32₴ · invest 1 439.21₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2138361 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 449.83₴ · invest 1 110.62₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005232 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2102722 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 445.40₴ · invest 1 098.07₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2131493 · The Horizon Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 436.26₴ · invest 1 056.31₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2138124 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 428.89₴ · invest 1 060.45₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2136245 · The Prisma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 428.57₴ · invest 1 071.60₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007945 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2139017 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 421.14₴ · invest 1 061.04₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007889 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2139183 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 1 419.11₴ · invest 1 095.08₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.003780 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2129968 · The Glove Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 416.61₴ · invest 1 200.80₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2133849 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 412.79₴ · invest 1 135.62₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2111760 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 410.63₴ · invest 1 089.00₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2131973 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 406.94₴ · invest 1 081.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006217 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2109589 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 404.63₴ · invest 1 105.17₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2139174 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 404.37₴ · invest 1 119.67₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2139063 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 396.45₴ · invest 1 121.37₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.004494
Craft 2110332 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 391.50₴ · invest 1 289.98₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006114 instead of 0.004494

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build