Restricted → Covert
About the craftCraft 2139610 · ways to build: 1The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+35 042.36₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the needed wear, regardless of float. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase.44 119.20₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.79 161.56₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+79.4%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.0%
From the outcome−28 612.34if you put everything into the next contract without selling
Selling intermediates+63 654.70money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 127 945.68₽
· profit at most −48 784.12₽
(−38.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%
The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.
!
The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits, or more than 10 pieces of one item are needed. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.
Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) × 406% of the wear range fitsat least ×2.903 715.20 → 10 774.08 ₽
AWP | PAW (Factory New) × 606% of the wear range fitsat least ×2.9040 404.00 → 117 171.60 ₽
The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.
Check:
⋯ More
!
profit only from resale. Without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative:
−28 612.34 ₽.
What to buy
Ways to build
1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.
!
6% of lots fit≈ market listings are not enough for even one chain (by listings)
Price understated: Подходит только 6% лотов, а лоты с редким float стоят дороже; 100 pcs needed, and about 33 sell per day — buying will take 4 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.
×40
Nova | Toy Soldier
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1630
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
3 715.20 ₽
at 92.88
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase details4 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.163068f′ (normalized) 0.163068wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 257 · good ≈ 0
on the market with this float, usually ~1,
new listings per day: fewer than one, cheapest usually 11 759.55 ₽
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 66) · data 11.10 15:54 MSK
×60
AWP | PAW
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0039
(2% of this wear's listings)
40 404.00 ₽
at 673.40
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase details6 per contract, for each of the 10 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.003977f′ (normalized) 0.007954wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 497 · good ≈ 12
on the market with this float, usually ~12,
new listings per day: fewer than one, cheapest usually 2 713.13 ₽
Lis-Skins: suitable 8 of 281 · from 2 658.72 ₽ (float 0.0023) · craft not before 18.10 · data 11.10 15:54 MSK
100
buy
Restricted
10
10 contracts
Classified
1
1 contract
Covert
Craft on only from Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New), sell the rest.Buy the missing ones at 1 817.00 ₽.
Set · 100 pcs44 119.20 ₽
+35 042.36
(+79.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900outcomes come out up to 0.055999, 0.069999«No higher than» is a guarantee. Take every item with the float at the upper limit and you get exactly the result shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
Chain steps
2 outcomesHow the chain goesAll steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling.Finish in the chain builder: with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.
1
Restricted → Classified
10 contracts of 10 · 10 items drop
sell
FAMAS | Eye of Athena
Factory New
float up to 0.048999
2 399.29 ₽33%
SteamFAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)+269.34each above the replacement
sell
M4A1-S | Nightmare
Factory New
float up to 0.069999
23 740.68 ₽33%
SteamM4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)+18 827.07each above the replacement
craft on
Sawed-Off | Devourer
Factory New
float up to 0.055999
1 811.56 ₽33%
SteamSawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)fetches 1 575.27, no more than the replacement
2
Classified → Covert
1 contract of 10 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 100%
at a loss
best
AK-47 | Neon Rider
Factory New
float up to 0.055999
19 038.90 ₽50.00%
SteamAK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)net 16 555.57 ₽sells 5 a weeksell now to a buy order: 21 905.96 ₽
(you get 19 048.66 ₽)) · buy orders: 841
sell on Market.CSGO: 18 230.86 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 989.98 · lots 25
on CSFloat: from 16 639.10 ₽listings: 135
on CS.Money: ~ 18 560.99 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 17 885.27 ₽listings: 118
at a loss
worst
Desert Eagle | Code Red
Factory New
float up to 0.069999
16 626.88 ₽50.00%
SteamDesert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)net 14 458.16 ₽sells about 2 a week (data for 6 days of 7))sell now to a buy order: 17 360.24 ₽
(you get 15 095.86 ₽)) · buy orders: 783
sell on Market.CSGO: 14 227.18 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 15 599.98 · lots 23
on CSFloat: from 13 502.45 ₽listings: 52
on CS.Money: ~ 15 757.95 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 14 796.16 ₽listings: 112
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same collection at other rarity tiers: from which quality into which it works here. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+33 103.78 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+34 598.12 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.
f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.
Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.