Restricted → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 10About the craftCraft 2148245 · ways to build: 1A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and it has many outcomes: the chance of a particular item is therefore small, and what counts is the average over all outcomes.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+56 153.50₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the needed wear, regardless of float. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase.77 015.00₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.133 168.50₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+72.9%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.4%
From the outcome−52 340.11if you put everything into the next contract without selling
Selling intermediates+108 493.61money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 223 343.50₽
· profit at most −90 175.00₽
(−40.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%
The estimate is made from the market at the time of the nightly check. Since then cheap listings with the needed float may have been bought or relisted. The «Check floats on Steam» button shows the current price.
!
The float window is very narrow: less than 30% of the wear range fits, or more than 10 pieces of one item are needed. The markup was not measured for such a case. The purchase will cost at least the stated number of times more. How much more is unknown, so the investment is shown as “at least” and the profit as “at most”.
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) × 5008% of the wear range fitsat least ×2.9077 015.00 → 223 343.50 ₽
The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.
Check:
⋯ More
!
profit only from resale. Without selling the intermediates the craft is at zero or negative:
−52 340.11 ₽.
!
Sell on a marketplace: CSFloat, outcomes: 2.
They have no price on Steam (above its price cap or nobody listed them); they are counted at the marketplace's cheapest listing minus its fee, ignoring pattern and float. They account for 7.1% of the probability. Money from the marketplace can be withdrawn, while the investment comes from the Steam balance. Without them (as zero, like before) the profit is +52 736.26 ₽.
What to buy
Ways to build
1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.
!
8% of lots fit≈ market listings are not enough for even one chain (estimate)
Price understated: Подходит только 8% лотов, а лоты с редким float стоят дороже; 500 pcs needed, and about 36 sell per day — buying will take 14 days, and the price will move in the meantime. The calculation uses the average price regardless of float, the real purchase will cost more.
×500
UMP-45 | Moonrise
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0054
(≈1% of this wear's listings)
77 015.00 ₽
at 154.03
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase details10 per contract, for each of the 50 first-step contractsexact upper edge 0.005405f′ (normalized) 0.013513wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 360 · good ≈ 6
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 3 of 220 · from 1 142.61 ₽ (float 0.0002) · craft not before 18.10 · data 11.10 15:54 MSK
500
buy
Restricted
50
50 contracts
Classified
5
5 contracts
Covert
1
1 contract
knife or gloves
Craft on only from R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested), sell the rest.Buy the missing ones at 761.68 ₽.
Craft on only from Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New), sell the rest.Buy the missing ones at 8 553.32 ₽.
Set · 500 pcs77 015.00 ₽
+56 153.50
(+72.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.013513414outcomes come out up to 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.006756, 0.408108, 0.069999, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.006756, 0.408108, 0.069999, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.006756, 0.408108, 0.069999, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.001081, 0.006756, 0.408108, 0.069999, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000«No higher than» is a guarantee. Take every item with the float at the upper limit and you get exactly the result shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
Chain steps
28 outcomesHow the chain goesAll steps are done in one day: a contract's outcome can go straight into the next one; the one-week trade hold doesn't apply to it. Only selling waits seven days: the final outcome and the intermediates worth selling.Finish in the chain builder: with filler from another collection or from your own intermediate items.
1
Restricted → Classified
50 contracts of 10 · 50 items drop
sell
AUG | Momentum
Factory New
float up to 0.062837
3 675.61 ₽33%
SteamAUG | Momentum (Factory New)+2 434.50each above the replacement
craft on
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher
Field-Tested
float up to 0.257432
761.68 ₽33%
SteamR8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)fetches 662.33, no more than the replacement
sell
XM1014 | Incinegator
Minimal Wear
float up to 0.146891
3 499.81 ₽33%
SteamXM1014 | Incinegator (Minimal Wear)+2 281.63each above the replacement
2
Classified → Covert
5 contracts of 10 · 5 items drop
craft on
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob
Factory New
float up to 0.009459
8 553.32 ₽50%
SteamFive-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)fetches 7 437.67, no more than the replacement
sell
M4A4 | The Emperor
Factory New
float up to 0.010810
23 586.34 ₽50%
price without deals
SteamM4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)+11 956.54each above the replacement
by lot · 1 sales per day
3
Covert → нож или перчатки
1 contract of 5 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome
Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 96%
at a loss
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
11 500.00 ₽3.57%
price without dealspricier variants exist7 phases, price averaged
sell now to a buy order: 10 992.08 ₽
(you get 9 558.33 ₽)) · buy orders: 2388
sell on Market.CSGO: 9 224.51 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 10 114.60 · lots 77price ignores floatprice ignores the phase
on CSFloat: from 8 300.45 ₽listings: 185
on CS.Money: ~ 9 084.82 ₽
at a loss
★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
8 455.04 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)net 7 352.21 ₽sells 81 a weeksell now to a buy order: 8 155.96 ₽
(you get 7 092.13 ₽)) · buy orders: 760
sell on Market.CSGO: 6 556.76 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 7 189.43 · lots 61price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 6 216.42 ₽listings: 57
on CS.Money: ~ 6 759.71 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 6 333.57 ₽listings: 110
at a loss
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
5 701.56 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)net 4 957.88 ₽sells 103 a weeksell now to a buy order: 6 599.01 ₽
(you get 5 738.26 ₽)) · buy orders: 817
sell on Market.CSGO: 5 505.70 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 6 036.96 · lots 56price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 4 972.80 ₽listings: 65
on CS.Money: ~ 5 380.27 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 4 947.33 ₽listings: 84
at a loss
★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel
Factory New
float up to 0.006756
5 463.34 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)net 4 750.73 ₽sells 15 a weekno buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 3 966.28 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 4 349.00 · lots 23price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 4 074.67 ₽listings: 17
on CS.Money: ~ 4 297.93 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 4 312.36 ₽listings: 35
at a loss
worst
★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat
Well-Worn
float up to 0.408108
3 319.61 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)net 2 886.62 ₽sells about 1 a week (data for 6 days of 7))sell now to a buy order: 4 294.28 ₽
(you get 3 734.15 ₽)) · buy orders: 436
sell on Market.CSGO: 3 746.24 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 4 107.73 · lots 10
on CSFloat: from 3 322.56 ₽listings: 7
on CS.Money: ~ 3 705.41 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 3 755.49 ₽listings: 15
sell now to a buy order: 8 137.15 ₽
(you get 7 075.78 ₽)) · buy orders: 127not listed on Market.CSGO right now
on CSFloat: from 7 400.63 ₽listings: 4
on CS.Money: ~ 9 550.02 ₽Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
at a loss
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
51 728.07 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist7 phases, price averaged
Steam★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)net 44 980.93 ₽sells 16 a weeksell now to a buy order: 49 506.94 ₽
(you get 43 049.51 ₽)) · buy orders: 1061
sell on Market.CSGO: 38 164.87 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 41 847.45 · lots 63price ignores floatprice ignores the phase
on CSFloat: from 35 591.42 ₽listings: 404
on CS.Money: ~ 41 061.67 ₽
at a loss
★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
30 242.01 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)net 26 297.40 ₽sells 24 a weekno buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 23 676.76 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 25 961.36 · lots 22price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 21 680.66 ₽listings: 103
on CS.Money: ~ 24 569.43 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 22 574.54 ₽listings: 80
at a loss
★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
25 836.87 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)net 22 466.84 ₽sells 32 a weeksell now to a buy order: 27 745.27 ₽
(you get 24 126.32 ₽)) · buy orders: 631
sell on Market.CSGO: 21 974.64 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 24 095.00 · lots 41price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 20 152.65 ₽listings: 135
on CS.Money: ~ 23 597.45 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 22 539.73 ₽listings: 71
at a loss
★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel
Factory New
float up to 0.006756
22 029.09 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)net 19 155.73 ₽sells about 4 a week (data for 6 days of 7))sell now to a buy order: 21 225.89 ₽
(you get 18 457.29 ₽)) · buy orders: 186
sell on Market.CSGO: 17 586.74 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 283.71 · lots 5price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 15 988.85 ₽listings: 22
on CS.Money: ~ 18 072.02 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 17 796.98 ₽listings: 15
sell now to a buy order: 15 076.50 ₽
(you get 13 110.00 ₽)) · buy orders: 146
sell on Market.CSGO: 13 530.15 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 14 835.70 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 12 733.35 ₽listings: 8
on CS.Money: ~ 12 505.85 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 11 560.19 ₽listings: 13
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 37 360.40 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 40 965.36 · lots 3CSFloat: price does not match Steam and is not shownLis-Skins: price does not match Steam and is not shown
at a loss
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
23 282.05 ₽3.57%
price without dealspricier variants exist7 phases, price averaged
sell now to a buy order: 23 988.76 ₽
(you get 20 859.79 ₽)) · buy orders: 946
sell on Market.CSGO: 17 692.80 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 400.00 · lots 56price ignores floatprice ignores the phase
on CSFloat: from 17 685.78 ₽listings: 292
on CS.Money: ~ 19 886.95 ₽
at a loss
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
14 824.99 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)net 12 891.30 ₽sells 49 a weeksell now to a buy order: 14 737.94 ₽
(you get 12 815.60 ₽)) · buy orders: 566
sell on Market.CSGO: 11 993.61 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 13 150.89 · lots 59price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 11 379.37 ₽listings: 81
on CS.Money: ~ 12 766.46 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 11 660.36 ₽listings: 99
at a loss
★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
13 043.15 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)net 11 341.87 ₽sells 56 a weeksell now to a buy order: 12 560.12 ₽
(you get 10 921.84 ₽)) · buy orders: 493
sell on Market.CSGO: 10 644.06 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 11 671.12 · lots 45price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 10 016.90 ₽listings: 97
on CS.Money: ~ 11 446.44 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 10 135.75 ₽listings: 92
sell now to a buy order: 8 519.26 ₽
(you get 7 408.05 ₽)) · buy orders: 182
sell on Market.CSGO: 7 294.16 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 7 997.99 · lots 12price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 6 791.12 ₽listings: 16
on CS.Money: ~ 7 574.65 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 7 410.81 ₽listings: 21
no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 5 948.42 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 6 522.40 · lots 3
on CSFloat: from 5 527.12 ₽listings: 6
on CS.Money: ~ 4 842.92 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 5 134.94 ₽listings: 9
at a loss
★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet
Factory New
float up to 0.069999
31 837.67 ₽3.57%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)net 31 200.91 ₽no price on Steam, listing on CSFloat from 31 837.67 ₽listings 4 · you get 31 200.91 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 30 505.41 ₽
(you get 26 526.44 ₽)) · buy orders: 156Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 31 833.38 ₽listings: 4
on Lis-Skins: from 31 959.87 ₽listings: 6
at a loss
★ Talon Knife | Doppler
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
75 349.45 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist7 phases, price averaged
Steam★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)net 65 521.26 ₽sells about 9 a week (data for 6 days of 7))sell now to a buy order: 78 280.97 ₽
(you get 68 070.40 ₽)) · buy orders: 1907
sell on Market.CSGO: 64 660.80 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 70 900.00 · lots 87price ignores floatprice ignores the phase
on CSFloat: from 59 574.27 ₽listings: 596
on CS.Money: ~ 69 056.37 ₽
at a loss
★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
54 639.88 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)net 47 512.94 ₽sells 18 a weeksell now to a buy order: 57 814.21 ₽
(you get 50 273.22 ₽)) · buy orders: 1260
sell on Market.CSGO: 42 639.60 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 46 753.95 · lots 35price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 39 862.19 ₽listings: 356
on CS.Money: ~ 48 168.58 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 43 649.94 ₽listings: 91
at a loss
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth
Factory New
float up to 0.001081
42 892.92 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)net 37 298.19 ₽sells 26 a weeksell now to a buy order: 43 602.06 ₽
(you get 37 914.83 ₽)) · buy orders: 950
sell on Market.CSGO: 36 297.60 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 39 800.00 · lots 40price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 33 289.23 ₽listings: 199
on CS.Money: ~ 40 061.68 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 35 742.52 ₽listings: 95
at a loss
★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel
Factory New
float up to 0.006756
38 247.92 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)net 33 259.06 ₽sells 5 a weekno buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 29 629.96 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 32 489.00 · lots 20price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 26 794.37 ₽listings: 58
on CS.Money: ~ 32 456.47 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 30 026.95 ₽listings: 30
at a loss
★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat
Well-Worn
float up to 0.408108
31 834.27 ₽3.57%
price without dealspricier variants exist
Steam★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)net 27 681.97 ₽
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 20 874.70 ₽
(you get 18 151.91 ₽)) · buy orders: 153
sell on Market.CSGO: 22 344.00 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 24 500.00 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 20 373.37 ₽listings: 7
on CS.Money: ~ 22 607.64 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 21 337.71 ₽listings: 3
at a loss
★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet
Factory New
float up to 0.069999
65 797.86 ₽3.57%
sell on CSFloatpricier variants exist
Steam★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)net 64 481.90 ₽no price on Steam, listing on CSFloat from 65 797.86 ₽listings 4 · you get 64 481.90 ₽ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternsell now to a buy order: 66 058.42 ₽
(you get 57 442.10 ₽)) · buy orders: 113not listed on Market.CSGO right now
on CSFloat: from 65 788.99 ₽listings: 4
at a loss
★ Ursus Knife
no wear
7 399.99 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Ursus Knifenet 6 434.77 ₽sells 64 a weeksell now to a buy order: 6 832.43 ₽
(you get 5 941.24 ₽)) · buy orders: 1091
sell on Market.CSGO: 5 563.20 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 6 100.00 · lots 25
on CSFloat: from 5 783.49 ₽listings: 43
on CS.Money: ~ 5 824.24 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 5 418.47 ₽listings: 84
at a loss
★ Navaja Knife
no wear
3 966.55 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Navaja Knifenet 3 449.17 ₽sells 180 a weeksell now to a buy order: 3 890.39 ₽
(you get 3 382.94 ₽)) · buy orders: 2549
sell on Market.CSGO: 3 233.03 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 3 544.99 · lots 20
on CSFloat: from 3 310.67 ₽listings: 39
on CS.Money: ~ 3 157.02 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 3 002.52 ₽listings: 74
at a loss
★ Stiletto Knife
no wear
17 574.36 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Stiletto Knifenet 15 282.05 ₽sells 46 a weeksell now to a buy order: 17 739.38 ₽
(you get 15 425.54 ₽)) · buy orders: 1426
sell on Market.CSGO: 14 400.48 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 15 790.00 · lots 13
on CSFloat: from 14 648.45 ₽listings: 85
on CS.Money: ~ 16 872.54 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 14 750.32 ₽listings: 71
at a loss
★ Talon Knife
no wear
31 731.50 ₽3.57%
pricier variants exist
Steam★ Talon Knifenet 27 592.61 ₽sells 41 a weeksell now to a buy order: 32 766.39 ₽
(you get 28 492.51 ₽)) · buy orders: 1890
sell on Market.CSGO: 23 712.00 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 26 000.00 · lots 26
on CSFloat: from 24 532.93 ₽listings: 138
on CS.Money: ~ 27 979.42 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 24 673.84 ₽listings: 86
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same collection at other rarity tiers: from which quality into which it works here. Click a variant to open its page with all the numbers. The variants may include a craft at a small loss: no more than 15% of the investment, if its most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee and that outcome's price is confirmed by sales.
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+54 066.43 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+55 574.53 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.
f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.
Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.