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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Prisma Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +5.53$

Invest 8.09$

Average return 13.62$

ROI +68.4%

Chance of profit 46%

With float: invest at least 19.13 $, profit at most −5.51 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

3.06 $

at 3.06

souvenirSteam

×8

MP7 | Mischief

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

3.86 $

at 0.48

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Crypsis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

1.16 $

at 1.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.09 $ +5.53 (+68.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

3.06 $

at 3.06

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

4.09 $

at 4.09

souvenirSteam

×8

MP7 | Mischief

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1626

3.86 $

at 0.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.02 $ +4.93 (+44.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6.12 $

at 3.06

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

4.09 $

at 4.09

souvenirSteam

×6

MP7 | Mischief

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1623

2.90 $

at 0.48

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Crypsis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

1.16 $

at 1.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.28 $ +4.01 (+28.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −10 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6.12 $

at 3.06

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

8.19 $

at 4.09

souvenirSteam

×6

MP7 | Mischief

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

2.90 $

at 0.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.21 $ +3.41 (+19.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −24 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

9.19 $

at 3.06

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

16.37 $

at 4.09

souvenirSteam

×2

P90 | Off World

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

0.85 $

at 0.42

Steam

×1

MP7 | Mischief

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

0.48 $

at 0.48

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 26.89 $ +0.73 (+2.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 54%

in profit

AWP | Atheris

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38.07 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Light Rail

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

15.88 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Gauss

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4.32 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

Tec-9 | Bamboozle

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

4.95 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

UMP-45 | Moonrise

Factory New

float up to 0.027999

1.67 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

39.33 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

41.40 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.025899

38.74 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Prisma Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Prisma Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 only The Prisma Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Shadow Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +3.06 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.29 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Prisma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2207173 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 5.38$ · invest 8.70$
rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear); MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162408 instead of 0.162733; FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New): float at most 0.003776 instead of 0.003875
Craft 2228345 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 5.05$ · invest 6.69$
rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear); MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163858 instead of 0.162733; FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New): float at most 0.004217 instead of 0.003875
Craft 2201603 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 4.98$ · invest 7.01$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear); MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163858 instead of 0.162733; FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New): float at most 0.004217 instead of 0.003875

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Prisma Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build