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The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Classified → Covert

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +28.37$

Invest 107.92$

Average return 136.29$

ROI +26.3%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 273.65 $, profit at most −137.36 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

15.41 $

at 7.71

Steam

×8

Nova | Bloomstick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1635

92.51 $

at 11.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 107.92 $ +28.37 (+26.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

XM1014 | Entombed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0785

15.44 $

at 5.15

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

23.12 $

at 7.71

Steam

×4

Nova | Bloomstick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1746

46.25 $

at 11.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 84.81 $ +4.43 (+5.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

25.62 $

at 6.41

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

7.71 $

at 7.71

Steam

×5

Nova | Bloomstick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

57.82 $

at 11.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 91.14 $ +9.85 (+10.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

7.71 $

at 7.71

Steam

×7

Nova | Bloomstick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1655

80.94 $

at 11.56

Steam

×2

P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

35.83 $

at 17.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 124.48 $ +23.57 (+18.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

XM1014 | Entombed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

5.15 $

at 5.15

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Entombed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

15.41 $

at 7.71

Steam

×7

Nova | Bloomstick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

80.94 $

at 11.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 101.50 $ +23.02 (+22.7%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 20%
About break-even 40%

about break-even

AK-47 | Jaguar

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.113636

119.34 $ 40.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Bullet Rain

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

248.23 $ 40.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.079545

43.00 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Printstream

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.090909

54.02 $ 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Horizon Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Gallery Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5.73 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +18.76 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fracture Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2234499 · The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 29.14$ · invest 109.98$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162699 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2234500 · The Prisma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 29.04$ · invest 95.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162026 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2235866 · The Revolver Case Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 27.91$ · invest 113.85$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 7 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167739 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2215088 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 25.30$ · invest 125.37$
profit on prices without salesat least −3 $ rare inputs

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164691 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2213926 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 24.80$ · invest 124.13$
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161949 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2220895 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 24.47$ · invest 100.65$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163330 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2223143 · The Fever Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 23.37$ · invest 95.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163330 instead of 0.163583
Craft 2219679 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 22.93$ · invest 114.17$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New); Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): 6 pcs instead of 8; Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163330 instead of 0.163583

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

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How to build