The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −7 976.00₴

Invest 22 299.32₴

Average return 14 323.33₴

ROI −35.8%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 51 631.94 ₴, profit at most −37 308.61 ₴

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −10 326.78 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0090

5 394.93 ₴

at 5 394.93

Steam

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0090

16 904.40 ₴

at 4 226.10

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 299.32 ₴ −7 976.00 (−35.8%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 16%
Losing outcome 65%
Above the Steam cap 18%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 950.42 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 068.76 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 336.93 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 408.09 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

49 760.23 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 528.60 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 908.42 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 000.52 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 531.57 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 600.00 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

69 151.08 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

40 008.05 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

82 252.08 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

52 333.00 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

57 860.74 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

36 729.42 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

11 094.27 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

5 135.89 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

7 867.51 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

8 594.80 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 699.40 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 875.35 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

4 626.06 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

3 122.68 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 743.14 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

5 055.57 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

3 507.67 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 278.19 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 080.59 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

4 495.93 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

10 989.69 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

8 807.50 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 527.23 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 101.72 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

11 637.75 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

3 877.15 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

8 012.78 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

13 751.48 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 422.54 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 344.20 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) × 1 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 5 394.93 → 11 653.04 ₴

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 4 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 16 904.40 → 39 978.90 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.013513414

outcomes come out up to 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 6 The Danger Zone Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −8 708.47 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −8 150.45 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2238444 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −7 947.46₴ · invest 23 653.47₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238445 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −7 947.46₴ · invest 23 653.47₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238820 · The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −7 976.00₴ · invest 22 299.32₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2239230 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit −7 998.37₴ · invest 27 572.60₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239231 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −7 998.37₴ · invest 27 572.60₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239006 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −8 065.97₴ · invest 24 416.05₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239007 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 065.97₴ · invest 24 416.05₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238912 · The Wildfire Collection + The Fever Collection · profit −8 092.15₴ · invest 21 140.18₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238913 · The Fever Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 092.15₴ · invest 21 140.18₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239520 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −8 177.59₴ · invest 23 167.25₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239521 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 177.59₴ · invest 23 167.25₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239486 · The Wildfire Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit −8 327.31₴ · invest 22 227.58₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239487 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 327.31₴ · invest 22 227.58₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238306 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit −8 346.29₴ · invest 24 052.31₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.007975 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238307 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 346.29₴ · invest 24 052.31₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.007975 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238376 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit −8 616.14₴ · invest 24 322.16₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008189 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2238377 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 616.14₴ · invest 24 322.16₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008189 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239530 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit −8 657.88₴ · invest 23 647.54₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 2239531 · The Spectrum Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 657.88₴ · invest 23 647.54₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build