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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Alpha Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Average profit −883.12₽

Invest 2 105.22₽

Average return 1 222.10₽

ROI −42.0%

Chance of profit 27%

With float: invest at least 4 958.18 ₽, profit at most −3 736.08 ₽

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×8

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

804.32 ₽

at 100.54

souvenirSteam

×2

Negev | Palm

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

1 300.90 ₽

at 650.45

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2 105.22 ₽ −883.12 (−42.0%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 27%
Losing outcome 67%
Above the Steam cap 7%

at a loss

worst

M249 | Humidor

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

347.25 ₽ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

float up to 0.007432

713.59 ₽ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

float up to 0.006621

680.51 ₽ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Purple DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.007432

2 862.29 ₽ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AUG | Anodized Navy

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

1 900.37 ₽ 6.67%

Steam

in profit

best

PP-Bizon | Rust Coat

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 369.94 ₽ 6.67%

price without deals

Steam

MAG-7 | Hazard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.67%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Alpha Collection

Variant 2 The Overpass Collection instead of The Alpha Collection Variant 3 The Arabesque Collection instead of The Alpha Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Alpha Collection Variant 5 The Bank Collection instead of The Alpha Collection Variant 6 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Alpha Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −1 102.90 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −969.35 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Alpha Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Alpha Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build