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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Baggage Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Average profit −3 683.68₸

Invest 6 277.37₸

Average return 2 593.69₸

ROI −58.7%

Chance of profit 13%

With float: invest 7 385.80 ₸, profit −4 792.11 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×8

Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.5394

987.36 ₸

at 123.42

souvenirSteam

×2

P90 | Leather

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.4217

5 290.01 ₸

at 2 645.01

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6 277.37 ₸ −3 683.68 (−58.7%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 13%
Losing outcome 80%
Above the Steam cap 7%

at a loss

M249 | Humidor

Well-Worn

float up to 0.401785

1 043.81 ₸ 20.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Music Box

Well-Worn

float up to 0.441964

936.05 ₸ 20.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Well-Worn

float up to 0.393749

1 061.93 ₸ 20.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Purple DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.441964

1 402.31 ₸ 20.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

in profit

best

Sawed-Off | First Class

Well-Worn

float up to 0.401785

17 277.58 ₸ 6.67%

price without deals price cut

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Business Class

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.803571

14 131.57 ₸ 6.67%

price without deals price cut

Steam

XM1014 | Red Leather

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.67%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Baggage Collection

Variant 2 The Overpass Collection instead of The Baggage Collection Variant 3 The Arabesque Collection instead of The Baggage Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Baggage Collection Variant 5 The Bank Collection instead of The Baggage Collection Variant 6 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Baggage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −3 947.30 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −3 719.60 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Baggage Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2249803 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Baggage Collection · profit −3 683.67₸ · invest 6 277.37₸
no outcome price rare inputs

M249 | Humidor: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; MP9 | Music Box: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; SG 553 | Desert Blossom: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; USP-S | Purple DDPAT: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; Sawed-Off | First Class: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.460450 instead of 0.539419; P90 | Leather (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384876 instead of 0.421728
Craft 2249804 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Baggage Collection · profit −3 683.67₸ · invest 6 277.37₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Humidor: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; SG 553 | Desert Blossom: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; Sawed-Off | First Class: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.508878 instead of 0.539419; P90 | Leather (Well-Worn): float at most 0.407476 instead of 0.421728
Craft 2249805 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Baggage Collection · profit −3 683.67₸ · invest 6 277.37₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Desert Blossom: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.519750 instead of 0.539419; P90 | Leather (Well-Worn): float at most 0.412550 instead of 0.421728

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Baggage Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

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How to build