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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Cobblestone Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit −441.53$

Invest 584.37$

Average return 142.83$

ROI −75.6%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest 593.63 $, profit −450.80 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 10.0% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 5 contracts · easy (by listings)

×9

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Field-Tested

any lot

185.35 $

at 20.59

souvenirSteam

×1

Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon

Field-Tested

any lot

399.02 $

at 399.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 584.37 $ −441.53 (−75.6%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 10%

at a loss

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.762898

215.02 $ 45.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.524492

150.01 $ 45.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

M4A1-S | Knight

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.095362

not on Steam: above the cap 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Cobblestone Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Cobblestone Collection Variant 3 only The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Revolution Collection instead of The Cobblestone Collection Variant 5 The Boreal Collection instead of The Cobblestone Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Cobblestone Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −448.50 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −442.18 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Cobblestone Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2249949 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Cobblestone Collection · profit −441.53$ · invest 584.37$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested): float at most 0.317583 instead of 0.370000; Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested): float at most 0.325200 instead of 0.380000

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Cobblestone Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

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How to build