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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Norse Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −31 528.68₽

Invest 45 421.90₽

Average return 13 893.22₽

ROI −69.4%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 104 614.73 ₽, profit at most −90 721.51 ₽

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 10.0% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×1

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1746

1 748.48 ₽

at 1 748.48

souvenirSteam

×8

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1758

15 124.24 ₽

at 1 890.53

souvenirSteam

×1

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3878

28 549.18 ₽

at 28 549.18

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 45 421.90 ₽ −31 528.68 (−69.4%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 50.0% of the chance

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×3

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1716

5 671.59 ₽

at 1 890.53

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

5 607.68 ₽

at 2 803.84

souvenirSteam

×2

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3865

57 098.36 ₽

at 28 549.18

Steam

×3

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

104 429.79 ₽

at 34 809.93

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 172 807.42 ₽ −165 088.97 (−95.5%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 60.0% of the chance

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×2

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1711

3 781.06 ₽

at 1 890.53

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

5 607.68 ₽

at 2 803.84

souvenirSteam

×2

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3864

57 098.36 ₽

at 28 549.18

Steam

×4

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0773

139 239.72 ₽

at 34 809.93

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 205 726.82 ₽ −199 552.06 (−97.0%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 10%

at a loss

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Field-Tested

float up to 0.199999

18 254.89 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.137499

17 250.00 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

Negev | Mjölnir

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Norse Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 3 only The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Revolution Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 5 The Boreal Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Norse Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −33 977.96 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −31 901.57 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Norse Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Norse Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build