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The 2021 Train Collection + The Norse Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit −359.78$

Invest 385.03$

Average return 25.25$

ROI −93.4%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest 391.22 $, profit −365.97 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 10.0% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×9

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.6701

48.76 $

at 5.42

Steam

×1

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.4416

336.27 $

at 336.27

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 385.03 $ −359.78 (−93.4%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 10%

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Meltdown

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

30.84 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.588999

31.80 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

best

USP-S | Whiteout

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.762999

34.16 $ 30.00%

Steam

Negev | Mjölnir

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.569999

not on Steam: above the cap 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Norse Collection

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 3 The Chroma 2 Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 5 The Arabesque Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 6 The Shadow Collection instead of The Norse Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −363.05 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −361.08 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Norse Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2250824 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Norse Collection · profit −359.31$ · invest 385.03$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Propaganda: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; Negev | Mjölnir: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.503092 instead of 0.670187; AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn): float at most 0.394865 instead of 0.441652
Craft 2250825 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Norse Collection · profit −359.78$ · invest 385.03$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Mjölnir: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.521124 instead of 0.670187; AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn): float at most 0.399914 instead of 0.441652
Craft 2250944 · The 2021 Train Collection + The St. Marc Collection · profit −382.99$ · invest 408.71$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn); MAC-10 | Propaganda: Field-Tested instead of Battle-Scarred; CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.468274 instead of 0.670187
Craft 2250945 · The 2021 Train Collection + The St. Marc Collection · profit −382.99$ · invest 408.71$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn); MAC-10 | Propaganda: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.490772 instead of 0.670187

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Norse Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

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How to build