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The 2021 Train Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit −13 508.57₽

Invest 23 857.04₽

Average return 10 348.47₽

ROI −56.6%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest 24 098.59 ₽, profit −13 750.12 ₽

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −17 210.39 ₽

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×4

SSG 08 | Spring Twilly

Field-Tested

any lot

596.00 ₽

at 149.00

Steam

×3

Tec-9 | Safety Net

Battle-Scarred

any lot

449.97 ₽

at 149.99

Steam

×3

Tec-9 | Terrace

Battle-Scarred

any lot

22 811.07 ₽

at 7 603.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23 857.04 ₽ −13 508.57 (−56.6%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 22%
Losing outcome 70%
Above the Steam cap 8%

at a loss

AWP | POP AWP

Well-Worn

float up to 0.385600

579.87 ₽ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.613454

460.00 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Space Race

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.525818

489.99 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.508290

553.06 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Field-Tested

float up to 0.350545

713.17 ₽ 14.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.657272

not on Steam: above the cap 7.50%

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.657272

50 000.00 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.701090

46 696.00 ₽ 7.50%

price without deals price cut

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Daybreak

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.525818

50 364.85 ₽ 7.50%

sell on CSFloat price cut

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 5 The Arabesque Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 6 The Harlequin Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −15 446.53 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −14 598.06 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Rising Sun Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2250898 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Rising Sun Collection · profit −13 511.54₽ · invest 23 860.01₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Red Quartz: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Field-Tested): 1 pcs instead of 4; Tec-9 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred): 6 pcs instead of 3

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build