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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +5.80$

Invest 16.19$

Average return 22.00$

ROI +35.8%

Chance of profit 62%

With float: invest at least 41.13 $, profit at most −19.13 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −10 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

3.11 $

at 3.11

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

13.09 $

at 1.45

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.19 $ +5.80 (+35.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −16 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ P2000 | Red FragCam

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

4.50 $

at 4.50

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

5.75 $

at 5.75

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

11.63 $

at 1.45

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 21.88 $ +1.20 (+5.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 44%
Losing outcome 38%
About break-even 18%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

8.21 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

19.51 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

25.52 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

8.00 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

59.01 $ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

float up to 0.003921

10.71 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom

Factory New

float up to 0.015686

82.73 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy

Factory New

float up to 0.003921

29.51 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Titanium Bit

Factory New

float up to 0.003921

23.17 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 The Genesis Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 3 The Prisma Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 5 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.50 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +5.39 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2255734 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 5.71$ · invest 17.21$
profit on prices without salesat least −11 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)
Craft 2270810 · The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 5.69$ · invest 16.47$
profit on prices without salesat least −11 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.004304
Craft 2270278 · The Falchion Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit 5.69$ · invest 16.39$
profit on prices without salesat least −10 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.007239 instead of 0.004304

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build