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The Falchion Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit −156.99$

Invest 270.81$

Average return 113.82$

ROI −58.0%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest 374.10 $, profit −260.28 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.5% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×7

P90 | Elite Build

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.7499

2.13 $

at 0.30

Steam

×3

Tec-9 | Terrace

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.7499

268.68 $

at 89.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 270.81 $ −156.99 (−58.0%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 22%
Losing outcome 70%
Above the Steam cap 8%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

0.79 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P2000 | Handgun

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.749999

0.69 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Well-Worn

float up to 0.389999

3.17 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Field-Tested

float up to 0.374999

1.31 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.522499

1.05 $ 14.00%

price without deals price cut

Steam

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.562499

not on Steam: above the cap 7.50%

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.562499

588.93 $ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.599999

550.01 $ 7.50%

price without deals price cut

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Daybreak

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

593.22 $ 7.50%

price without deals price cut

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −180.27 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −169.99 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Rising Sun Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2270529 · The Falchion Collection + The Rising Sun Collection · profit −156.94$ · invest 270.81$
outcome without sales no outcome price rare inputs

FAMAS | Neural Net: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; M4A4 | Evil Daimyo: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; Negev | Loudmouth: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; M4A4 | Daybreak: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.607843 instead of 0.749999; Tec-9 | Terrace (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.607843 instead of 0.749999
Craft 2270530 · The Falchion Collection + The Rising Sun Collection · profit −156.94$ · invest 270.81$
outcome without sales no outcome price rare inputs

FAMAS | Neural Net: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; M4A4 | Evil Daimyo: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; M4A4 | Daybreak: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.633333 instead of 0.749999; Tec-9 | Terrace (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.633333 instead of 0.749999
Craft 2270531 · The Falchion Collection + The Rising Sun Collection · profit −156.98$ · invest 270.81$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.730769 instead of 0.749999; Tec-9 | Terrace (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.730769 instead of 0.749999

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build