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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +69.64$

Invest 27.23$

Average return 96.87$

ROI +255.7%

Chance of profit 39%

With float: invest at least 65.68 $, profit at most +31.20 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −24 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 13.3% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

8.73 $

at 1.45

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0836

18.51 $

at 4.63

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 27.23 $ +69.64 (+255.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 39%
Losing outcome 48%
Above the Steam cap 13%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

627.21 $ 13.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P250 | Splash

Factory New

float up to 0.061621

100.10 $ 13.33%

price without deals

Steam

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 13.33%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

8.21 $ 12.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

19.51 $ 12.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

25.52 $ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

8.00 $ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

59.01 $ 12.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Variant 2 The Genesis Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 3 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +66.01 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +69.31 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 14 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2279468 · The Kilowatt Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 65.84$ · invest 21.20$
profit on prices without salesat least −18 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083636 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2272566 · The Fracture Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 65.31$ · invest 21.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −19 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2282584 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 65.21$ · invest 23.52$
profit on prices without salesat least −21 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083503 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2268369 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 65.05$ · invest 26.31$
profit on prices without salesat least −20 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083908 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2284117 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 64.59$ · invest 21.81$
profit on prices without salesat least −20 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083726 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2275922 · The Genesis Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 64.13$ · invest 27.34$
profit on prices without salesat least −21 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083908 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2283727 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 64.03$ · invest 22.43$
profit on prices without salesat least −20 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2271724 · The Fever Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 62.84$ · invest 24.03$
profit on prices without salesat least −21 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083908 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2273638 · The Gallery Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 62.78$ · invest 27.85$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083641 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2261034 · The CS20 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 62.19$ · invest 26.18$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083533 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2286111 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 62.18$ · invest 38.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −36 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ M249 | Magma (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2267348 · The Danger Zone Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 61.73$ · invest 24.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −23 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083695 instead of 0.083638
Craft 2280555 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 61.14$ · invest 35.66$
profit on prices without salesat least −32 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2281244 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 56.54$ · invest 47.34$
profit on prices without salesat least −42 $ no outcome price rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083705 instead of 0.083638

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

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How to build