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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +506.48₴

Invest 1 434.56₴

Average return 1 941.04₴

ROI +35.3%

Chance of profit 36%

With float: invest at least 3 754.66 ₴, profit at most −1 813.62 ₴

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 026 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

38.76 ₴

at 38.76

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0859

1 395.79 ₴

at 155.09

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 434.56 ₴ +506.48 (+35.3%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 36%
Losing outcome 64%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

741.25 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 974.04 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.002702

1 932.06 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

482.35 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Virus

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 004.22 ₴ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

251.74 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

882.87 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

377.83 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

230.38 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

661.84 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +164.05 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +400.72 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 18 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2286033 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 557.79₴ · invest 1 466.96₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 080 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083967 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2254204 · The Ancient Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 551.92₴ · invest 1 581.88₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 204 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085218 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2247994 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 521.79₴ · invest 1 429.47₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 000 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083982 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2284695 · The Safehouse Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 520.33₴ · invest 1 427.63₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 001 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085647 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2285215 · The Shattered Web Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 516.22₴ · invest 1 490.94₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 035 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084362 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2248786 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 516.03₴ · invest 1 480.19₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 025 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2274492 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 515.19₴ · invest 1 436.77₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 009 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2282225 · The Phoenix Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 511.99₴ · invest 1 422.96₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 009 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084620 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2281642 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 508.21₴ · invest 1 422.27₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 013 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2285409 · The Snakebite Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 507.42₴ · invest 1 417.97₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 014 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2283334 · The Radiant Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 507.11₴ · invest 1 426.55₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 014 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2278116 · The Horizon Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 506.63₴ · invest 1 437.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 023 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2262650 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 505.29₴ · invest 1 410.79₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 016 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084729 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2264790 · The Chroma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 505.15₴ · invest 1 435.94₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 016 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2263898 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 503.57₴ · invest 1 421.19₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 018 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2275195 · The Gamma Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 503.20₴ · invest 1 418.02₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 018 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2284443 · The Revolver Case Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 502.44₴ · invest 1 425.92₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 023 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085767 instead of 0.085912
Craft 2258364 · The Boreal Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 502.20₴ · invest 1 412.76₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 019 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085912

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build