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The Fever Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit −156.01$

Invest 269.29$

Average return 113.28$

ROI −57.9%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest 272.00 $, profit −158.72 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.5% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×7

P2000 | Sure Grip

Well-Worn

any lot

0.61 $

at 0.09

Steam

×3

Tec-9 | Terrace

Battle-Scarred

any lot

268.68 $

at 89.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 269.29 $ −156.01 (−57.9%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 22%
Losing outcome 70%
Above the Steam cap 8%

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike

Field-Tested

float up to 0.370500

0.58 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Galil AR | Control

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.519346

0.49 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Rising Sun

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.650000

0.51 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Wave Breaker

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.617856

0.49 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Tosai

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.455000

0.49 $ 14.00%

Steam

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.487500

not on Steam: above the cap 7.50%

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.487500

588.93 $ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.520000

550.01 $ 7.50%

price without deals price cut

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Daybreak

Well-Worn

float up to 0.390000

593.22 $ 7.50%

price without deals price cut

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Fever Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection Variant 6 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Rising Sun Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −179.23 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −168.99 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fever Collection and The Rising Sun Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2271457 · The Fever Collection + The Rising Sun Collection · profit −156.01$ · invest 269.29$
outcome without sales no outcome price rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Tosai: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; M4A4 | Daybreak: Field-Tested instead of Well-Worn; P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn): float at most 0.444683 instead of 0.450000; Tec-9 | Terrace (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.958227 instead of 1.000000
Craft 2271458 · The Fever Collection + The Rising Sun Collection · profit −156.01$ · invest 269.29$
outcome without sales no outcome price rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Tosai: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn): float at most 0.447721 instead of 0.450000; Tec-9 | Terrace (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.982097 instead of 1.000000

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fever Collection + The Rising Sun Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build