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The Norse Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −15 460.90₴

Invest 15 787.80₴

Average return 326.90₴

ROI −97.9%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest 15 802.12 ₴, profit −15 475.21 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 10.0% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

AUG | Flame Jörmungandr

Well-Worn

any lot

15 116.04 ₴

at 15 116.04

Steam

×6

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Well-Worn

any lot

434.24 ₴

at 72.37

Steam

×3

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Battle-Scarred

any lot

237.52 ₴

at 79.17

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15 787.80 ₴ −15 460.90 (−97.9%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 10%

at a loss

best

P250 | Cartel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.495000

444.68 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.660000

412.85 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

XM1014 | Tranquility

Field-Tested

float up to 0.330000

395.59 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

Negev | Mjölnir

Well-Worn

float up to 0.396000

not on Steam: above the cap 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Norse Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Norse Collection Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Norse Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −15 505.38 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −15 471.21 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Norse Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2285890 · The St. Marc Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit −16 525.91₴ · invest 16 852.26₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn); P250 | Cartel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Norse Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build