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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Classified → Covert

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +42.04$

Invest 103.52$

Average return 145.56$

ROI +40.6%

Chance of profit 90%

With float: invest at least 260.49 $, profit at most −114.93 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

78.50 $

at 8.72

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

25.02 $

at 25.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 103.52 $ +42.04 (+40.6%)

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

69.78 $

at 8.72

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

12.15 $

at 12.15

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

25.02 $

at 25.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 106.95 $ +33.69 (+31.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −5 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

61.06 $

at 8.72

Steam

×2

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

24.30 $

at 12.15

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

25.02 $

at 25.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 110.38 $ +25.33 (+22.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −24 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

52.33 $

at 8.72

Steam

×3

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

36.46 $

at 12.15

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

25.02 $

at 25.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 113.81 $ +16.97 (+14.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −42 $

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

43.61 $

at 8.72

Steam

×4

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

48.61 $

at 12.15

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

25.02 $

at 25.02

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 117.24 $ +8.61 (+7.3%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 90%
Losing outcome 0%
About break-even 10%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

189.65 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

156.47 $ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.095499

117.54 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

worst

P2000 | Fire Elemental

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

115.23 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Prisma Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Horizon Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Gamma Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The Fracture Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +22.49 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +37.80 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2428928 · The Falchion Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 39.99$ · invest 113.83$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New); SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076617 instead of 0.076511

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build