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The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 450.04₸

Invest 3 585.97₸

Average return 5 036.01₸

ROI +40.4%

Chance of profit 48%

With float: invest at least 8 806.33 ₸, profit at most −3 770.32 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

2 244.97 ₸

at 374.16

Steam

×4

Tec-9 | Jambiya

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1651

1 341.00 ₸

at 335.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 585.97 ₸ +1 450.04 (+40.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −379 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0781

1 127.19 ₸

at 281.80

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

1 496.65 ₸

at 374.16

Steam

×2

Tec-9 | Jambiya

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1733

670.50 ₸

at 335.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 294.34 ₸ +921.77 (+28.0%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 36%
Losing outcome 52%
About break-even 12%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

2 890.78 ₸ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 345.92 ₸ 12.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

4 262.88 ₸ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

2 545.48 ₸ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

482.94 ₸ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Valence

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

13 609.71 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

in profit

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate

Factory New

float up to 0.042699

5 293.70 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Royal Legion

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 174.97 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

float up to 0.031499

2 646.02 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Impire

Factory New

float up to 0.027999

3 376.33 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +634.36 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 109.76 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2443443 · The Snakebite Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 906.47₸ · invest 2 637.31₸
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Windblown (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163068 instead of 0.165131
Craft 2433271 · The Gamma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 684.31₸ · invest 2 679.64₸
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163068 instead of 0.165131
Craft 2416305 · The Boreal Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 492.04₸ · invest 2 403.51₸
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164197 instead of 0.165131
Craft 2435525 · The Harlequin Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 455.06₸ · invest 3 650.75₸
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164777 instead of 0.165131
Craft 2410937 · The Achroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 450.42₸ · invest 3 282.26₸
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164685 instead of 0.165131
Craft 2437486 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 447.85₸ · invest 2 127.06₸
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165118 instead of 0.165131
Craft 2430826 · The Fracture Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 439.57₸ · invest 2 205.31₸
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

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How to build