The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +442.95$

Invest 887.03$

Average return 1 329.98$

ROI +49.9%

Chance of profit 71%

With float: invest at least 2 083.82 $, profit at most −753.84 $

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −561.24 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

818.74 $

at 204.69

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

68.28 $

at 68.28

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 887.03 $ +442.95 (+49.9%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −77 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

409.37 $

at 204.69

Steam

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

204.84 $

at 68.28

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 614.22 $ +214.18 (+34.9%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −178 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

204.69 $

at 204.69

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

273.12 $

at 68.28

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 477.81 $ +99.79 (+20.9%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 71%
Losing outcome 26%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 326.63 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 591.06 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 710.46 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 191.83 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 484.28 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

948.29 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 175.38 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 699.74 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 580.00 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 500.00 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 499.00 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850.00 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 666.00 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 421.17 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 399.38 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 396.76 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 064.42 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 712.70 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

749.99 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 390.18 $ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 360.00 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 718.35 $ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

283.21 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

240.47 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

341.40 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

288.04 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

666.09 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

156.19 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

244.97 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 799.54 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

232.77 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

363.67 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

220.02 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +429.74 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +440.37 $ historical median

4% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2444819 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 474.19$ · invest 1 039.21$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2444822 · The Breakout Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 474.19$ · invest 1 039.21$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2445181 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 458.39$ · invest 882.58$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2445185 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 458.39$ · invest 882.58$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2445409 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 457.62$ · invest 924.48$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445412 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 457.62$ · invest 924.48$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445339 · The Phoenix Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 452.52$ · invest 929.57$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2445342 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 452.52$ · invest 929.57$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2445397 · The Vanguard Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 448.12$ · invest 933.98$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011923 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445400 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 448.12$ · invest 933.98$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011923 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2444905 · The CS20 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 442.95$ · invest 887.03$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2445369 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 440.44$ · invest 941.65$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445372 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 440.44$ · invest 941.65$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445315 · The Huntsman Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 436.95$ · invest 900.33$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445318 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 436.95$ · invest 900.33$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2444739 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 434.62$ · invest 947.48$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2444741 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 434.62$ · invest 947.48$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445283 · The Fracture Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 434.25$ · invest 887.75$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2445286 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 434.25$ · invest 887.75$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build