The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +420 541.87₸

Invest 1 119 683.68₸

Average return 1 540 225.56₸

ROI +37.6%

Chance of profit 23%

With float: invest at least 2 631 390.67 ₸, profit at most −1 091 165.17 ₸

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −989 098.21 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈3% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

81 274.29 ₸

at 81 274.29

Steam

×4

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

1 038 409.40 ₸

at 259 602.35

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 119 683.68 ₸ +420 541.87 (+37.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −40 307 ₸

≈3% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

243 822.87 ₸

at 81 274.29

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

519 204.70 ₸

at 259 602.35

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 763 027.57 ₸ +53 477.21 (+7.0%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 68%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

730 351.04 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

406 836.69 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

523 405.09 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

299 470.43 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

730 628.77 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 221 320.08 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

471 899.93 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

336 699.65 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

952 874.84 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

761 901.39 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

271 796.18 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 918 994.65 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 558 436.54 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

781 089.65 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

14 973 924.38 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 537 499.23 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 293 187.30 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 710 248.32 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

469 689.86 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

233 000.18 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700 942.76 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

181 495.45 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

102 999.95 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

106 665.99 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

177 414.57 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

106 903.42 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

197 410.69 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

133 629.28 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

123 929.88 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

123 061.50 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 775.59 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

82 850.15 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83 500.39 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

58 996.90 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +402 486.74 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +411 546.48 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Operation Hydra Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2445911 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 423 019.47₸ · invest 1 151 955.05₸
sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly float cannot be reached rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012015 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2445912 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 423 019.47₸ · invest 1 151 955.05₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012015 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2445481 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 420 541.85₸ · invest 1 119 683.68₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2445735 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 418 849.18₸ · invest 1 137 464.24₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 2445736 · The Horizon Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 418 849.18₸ · invest 1 137 464.24₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build