The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −4 415.30₴

Invest 9 970.00₴

Average return 5 554.70₴

ROI −44.3%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest 10 497.11 ₴, profit −4 942.41 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈80% of lots fit ≈ enough for 3 contracts · medium (estimate)

×5

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3583

9 970.00 ₴

at 1 994.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 9 970.00 ₴ −4 415.30 (−44.3%)

What you get 13 outcomes

Profitable outcome 8%
Losing outcome 77%
About break-even 8%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.044799

11 069.15 ₴ 7.69%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

15 812.48 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

7 754.33 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

6 221.53 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

9 000.87 ₴ 7.69%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

3 599.91 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

3 441.59 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

9 133.46 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

not on Steam: above the cap 7.69%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

3 044.49 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

3 622.67 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

3 599.51 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 742.87 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Covert → a knife or gloves

Variant 2 Classified → Covert

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −5 396.55 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −4 703.44 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 13 outcomes

More

How to build