The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −5 693.41₴

Invest 22 833.54₴

Average return 17 140.13₴

ROI −24.9%

Chance of profit 26%

With float: invest at least 50 256.25 ₴, profit at most −33 116.11 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −8 707.89 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0827

9 357.92 ₴

at 3 119.31

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

4 135.12 ₴

at 4 135.12

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1866

9 340.50 ₴

at 9 340.50

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 833.54 ₴ −5 693.41 (−24.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 68%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

11 069.15 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

30 940.67 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

15 508.67 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 752.63 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

19 572.64 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 031.59 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 088.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

15 248.37 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 733.13 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 792.30 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 326.84 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 742.87 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

88 792.42 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

66 027.20 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

60 377.36 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

40 278.31 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

72 450.31 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

36 173.14 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

36 226.18 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

76 980.57 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

56 151.63 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

39 577.79 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

31 628.19 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

50 817.56 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

45 120.53 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 9 357.92 → 21 148.90 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 4 135.12 → 8 931.86 ₴

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) × 1 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 9 340.50 → 20 175.49 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −6 671.58 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −5 720.27 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2448506 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −5 693.41₴ · invest 22 833.54₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build