The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −59 422.59₸

Invest 174 457.41₸

Average return 115 034.82₸

ROI −34.1%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest 175 665.20 ₸, profit −60 630.38 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −88 322.00 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 5 contracts · easy (by listings)

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

any lot

80 519.44 ₸

at 20 129.86

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Battle-Scarred

any lot

93 937.96 ₸

at 93 937.96

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 174 457.41 ₸ −59 422.59 (−34.1%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.054000

111 745.40 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.178750

114 813.05 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.675000

78 281.64 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.675000

62 807.63 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.675000

90 865.72 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

36 341.82 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

34 743.61 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

92 204.20 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

30 734.73 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

36 571.61 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

36 337.86 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

68 070.75 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.054000

896 378.42 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.178750

815 491.28 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.675000

317 624.93 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.675000

365 711.00 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.675000

517 342.55 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

263 219.16 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

255 607.37 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

247 293.70 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

290 238.62 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

240 532.70 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

251 821.60 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559500

264 585.97 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

455 501.38 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −71 106.60 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −61 826.53 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2448497 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −57 024.32₸ · invest 174 457.41₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter: Minimal Wear instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter: Minimal Wear instead of Field-Tested; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.312122 instead of 0.380000; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.781294 instead of 0.920000
Craft 2448505 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −57 024.32₸ · invest 174 457.41₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter: Minimal Wear instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter: Minimal Wear instead of Field-Tested; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.781294 instead of 0.920000; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.312122 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2449656 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit −59 177.92₸ · invest 143 035.18₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2449667 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −59 177.92₸ · invest 143 035.18₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2448507 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −59 422.57₸ · invest 174 457.41₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2450049 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −61 203.57₸ · invest 149 932.43₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter: Minimal Wear instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.246451 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2450060 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −61 203.57₸ · invest 149 932.43₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter: Minimal Wear instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.246451 instead of 0.380000

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build