The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −10 752.92₽

Invest 43 124.81₽

Average return 32 371.89₽

ROI −24.9%

Chance of profit 26%

With float: invest at least 94 916.98 ₽, profit at most −62 545.09 ₽

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −16 446.25 ₽

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1866

17 641.04 ₽

at 17 641.04

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0827

17 673.93 ₽

at 5 891.31

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

7 809.84 ₽

at 7 809.84

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 43 124.81 ₽ −10 752.92 (−24.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 68%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

20 905.86 ₽ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

58 436.41 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

29 290.61 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

16 530.74 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

36 966.07 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

9 502.96 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

11 500.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

28 799.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

16 493.92 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

12 828.34 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 171.94 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

12 735.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

167 698.73 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

124 702.95 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

114 032.32 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

76 072.04 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

136 834.03 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

68 318.77 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

68 418.95 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

145 390.15 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

106 051.35 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

74 749.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

59 734.91 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

95 977.12 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

85 217.36 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) × 1 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 17 641.04 → 38 104.65 ₽

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 17 673.93 → 39 943.08 ₽

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 16% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 7 809.84 → 16 869.25 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −12 600.35 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −10 803.65 ₽ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2448498 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −10 752.92₽ · invest 43 124.81₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build