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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +4.06$

Invest 12.51$

Average return 16.57$

ROI +32.4%

Chance of profit 70%

With float: invest at least 31.01 $, profit at most −14.43 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

4.06 $

at 4.06

souvenirSteam

×9

MP9 | Spy Prototype

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

8.46 $

at 0.94

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12.51 $ +4.06 (+32.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

3.14 $

at 3.14

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

8.11 $

at 4.06

souvenirSteam

×7

MP9 | Spy Prototype

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

6.58 $

at 0.94

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.83 $ +2.35 (+13.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −8 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

3.17 $

at 3.17

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

12.17 $

at 4.06

souvenirSteam

×1

AUG | Signal Scanner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1639

0.46 $

at 0.46

Steam

×5

MP9 | Spy Prototype

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

4.70 $

at 0.94

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20.49 $ +1.48 (+7.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

8.11 $

at 4.06

souvenirSteam

×1

AUG | Signal Scanner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

0.46 $

at 0.46

Steam

×7

MP9 | Spy Prototype

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

6.58 $

at 0.94

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.15 $ +3.22 (+21.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −11 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

6.28 $

at 3.14

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

12.17 $

at 4.06

souvenirSteam

×5

MP9 | Spy Prototype

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

4.70 $

at 0.94

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23.14 $ +0.63 (+2.7%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 30%
About break-even 30%

in profit

AWP | Black Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23.62 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12.61 $ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

Nova | Smart Gun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

14.73 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

39.35 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

34.46 $ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.025899

39.28 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection Variant 3 The Prisma Collection instead of The Spy Tech Collection Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 5 The Train Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.35 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.25 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Spy Tech Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2490072 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 3.69$ · invest 11.71$
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.076511
Craft 2485953 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 3.67$ · invest 11.13$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Factory New) instead of Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New); MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076511

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spy Tech Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build