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The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +125.88₴

Invest 355.42₴

Average return 481.30₴

ROI +35.4%

Chance of profit 94%

With float: invest at least 917.01 ₴, profit at most −435.72 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

37.74 ₴

at 37.74

Steam

×9

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

317.68 ₴

at 35.30

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 355.42 ₴ +125.88 (+35.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 94%
Losing outcome 4%
About break-even 2%

in profit

M4A1-S | Nitro

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

558.58 ₴ 90.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

292.07 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

927.74 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

405.13 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

239.70 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

673.93 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

Variant 2 The Militia Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 4 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +36.52 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +66.50 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Safehouse Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2456464 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 138.68₴ · invest 350.23₴
pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.003860 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2493568 · The Safehouse Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 134.25₴ · invest 413.58₴
outcome without sales rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004171 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2490863 · The Phoenix Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 128.40₴ · invest 344.78₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004415 instead of 0.005647
Craft 2457259 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 125.06₴ · invest 404.15₴
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build