The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +884.89$

Invest 2 468.80$

Average return 3 353.69$

ROI +35.8%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 5 801.98 $, profit at most −2 448.29 $

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −2 178.42 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈3% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

179.16 $

at 179.16

Steam

×4

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

2 289.64 $

at 572.41

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 2 468.80 $ +884.89 (+35.8%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −120 $

≈3% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

537.48 $

at 179.16

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

1 144.82 $

at 572.41

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 682.29 $ +99.33 (+5.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 68%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 602.81 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

909.04 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 169.51 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

669.14 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 610.00 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 054.42 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

742.30 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 129.12 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 679.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

607.31 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 287.84 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 419.87 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 745.28 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 458.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 138.67 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 889.52 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 696.75 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 035.00 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

576.86 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 545.14 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

405.54 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

242.08 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

280.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

393.51 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

238.87 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

435.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

298.58 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

273.22 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

274.97 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

146.97 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

182.16 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

184.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

130.01 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Danger Zone Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +844.90 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +864.54 $ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Operation Hydra Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2496381 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 910.09$ · invest 2 435.20$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012584 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2496382 · The Gallery Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 910.09$ · invest 2 435.20$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012584 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2496689 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 895.23$ · invest 2 534.28$
sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly float cannot be reached rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012015 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2496690 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 895.23$ · invest 2 534.28$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): float at most 0.012015 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2496519 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 889.45$ · invest 2 507.99$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 2496520 · The Horizon Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 889.45$ · invest 2 507.99$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 2496271 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 884.89$ · invest 2 468.80$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build