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The 2021 Train Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +1.40$

Invest 6.79$

Average return 8.19$

ROI +20.7%

Chance of profit 100%

With float: invest at least 16.21 $, profit at most −8.02 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

2.33 $

at 2.33

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

3.60 $

at 0.45

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

0.85 $

at 0.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.79 $ +1.40 (+20.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

4.67 $

at 2.33

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

3.15 $

at 0.45

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

0.85 $

at 0.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.67 $ +0.63 (+7.2%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 0%
About break-even 45%

in profit

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8.31 $ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

worst

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.97 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.043999

35.80 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17.40 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.059999

21.38 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.057999

19.36 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.039999

10.55 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.27 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +0.84 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Harlequin Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2535209 · The Harlequin Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 1.52$ · invest 6.47$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074087 instead of 0.075809; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.003576 instead of 0.005082

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Harlequin Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build