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The Falchion Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +5.96$

Invest 7.72$

Average return 13.68$

ROI +77.2%

Chance of profit 52%

With float: invest at least 18.87 $, profit at most −5.19 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

4.14 $

at 0.69

Steam

×4

SCAR-20 | Torn

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

3.58 $

at 0.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.72 $ +5.96 (+77.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

3.85 $

at 0.55

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

1.38 $

at 0.69

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Torn

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.90 $

at 0.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.13 $ +2.61 (+42.7%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 52%
Losing outcome 36%
About break-even 12%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

6.14 $ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19.44 $ 12.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

8.63 $ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

5.45 $ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

1.12 $ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Rat Rod

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77.23 $ 8.00%

Steam

in profit

AUG | Arctic Wolf

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

10.24 $ 8.00%

Steam

in profit

PP-Bizon | Embargo

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11.47 $ 8.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Obsidian

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21.90 $ 8.00%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Neon Ply

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

14.69 $ 8.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection Variant 5 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +3.30 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.89 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shattered Web Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2535665 · The Horizon Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 6.65$ · invest 9.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2539103 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 6.43$ · invest 7.24$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2540840 · The Radiant Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 6.06$ · invest 7.72$
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2522098 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 6.00$ · invest 6.96$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2541863 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.92$ · invest 7.57$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2542370 · The Shadow Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.64$ · invest 9.32$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2542758 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 5.56$ · invest 8.47$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2515042 · The Ascent Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.54$ · invest 8.93$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074409 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2523022 · The Chroma Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.40$ · invest 9.52$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074011 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2532891 · The Gamma Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.39$ · invest 6.88$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074409 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2510722 · The Achroma Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.37$ · invest 7.72$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074584 instead of 0.074745
Craft 2540459 · The Prisma Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 5.27$ · invest 10.45$
sells slowly rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074219 instead of 0.074745

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build