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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +2 254.22₸

Invest 7 466.28₸

Average return 9 720.50₸

ROI +30.2%

Chance of profit 59%

With float: invest at least 18 913.32 ₸, profit at most −9 192.81 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

5 928.04 ₸

at 658.67

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1 538.24 ₸

at 1 538.24

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7 466.28 ₸ +2 254.22 (+30.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 156 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

784.38 ₸

at 392.19

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

3 293.35 ₸

at 658.67

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

6 500.01 ₸

at 2 166.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 577.74 ₸ +323.31 (+3.1%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 41%
Losing outcome 41%
About break-even 18%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

3 215.97 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

8 707.04 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

10 237.54 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

3 674.78 ₸ 18.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

26 663.62 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.027450

26 665.88 ₸ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

7 909.81 ₸ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +315.99 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 106.29 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2528468 · The Falchion Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit 2 285.33₸ · invest 7 436.04₸
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.006630 instead of 0.003703
Craft 2513301 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 2 146.58₸ · invest 7 753.86₸
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004304 instead of 0.003703
Craft 2513623 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 2 108.01₸ · invest 7 375.50₸
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.004304 instead of 0.003703

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build