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The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +420.96₴

Invest 611.12₴

Average return 1 032.07₴

ROI +68.9%

Chance of profit 48%

With float: invest at least 1 556.35 ₴, profit at most −524.27 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

25.26 ₴

at 25.26

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

36.24 ₴

at 36.24

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

549.62 ₴

at 68.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 611.12 ₴ +420.96 (+68.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −28 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0786

105.26 ₴

at 17.54

Steam

×3

MAC-10 | Rangeen

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

129.12 ₴

at 43.04

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0786

68.70 ₴

at 68.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 303.09 ₴ +179.97 (+59.4%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 52%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

387.25 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

2 993.05 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

1 396.58 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

286.36 ₴ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

1 030.08 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

335.02 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

226.50 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

314.75 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +203.98 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +320.35 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 43 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2543497 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 434.77₴ · invest 628.45₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MP9 | Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2513191 · The Arabesque Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 428.88₴ · invest 625.58₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2540623 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 428.20₴ · invest 609.62₴
rare inputs

MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2532317 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 424.52₴ · invest 609.55₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2506043 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 422.93₴ · invest 618.39₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163661 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074751 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2543643 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 417.90₴ · invest 646.96₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2543446 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 417.89₴ · invest 607.25₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2535803 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 417.13₴ · invest 620.40₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2543583 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 416.28₴ · invest 624.69₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2542015 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 415.54₴ · invest 605.53₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2526696 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 413.53₴ · invest 596.55₴
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2533724 · The Genesis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 413.05₴ · invest 596.57₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2542978 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 412.82₴ · invest 602.55₴
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2531573 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 412.32₴ · invest 603.70₴
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2528848 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 411.95₴ · invest 610.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2516514 · The Boreal Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 410.65₴ · invest 602.86₴
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167286 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076012 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2539234 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 409.12₴ · invest 613.30₴
rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167146 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075963 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2521146 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 408.07₴ · invest 600.80₴
rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165242 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075301 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2529780 · The Fever Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 408.04₴ · invest 593.47₴
rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2537135 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 407.41₴ · invest 592.39₴
rare inputs

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2519119 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 406.98₴ · invest 608.12₴
rare inputs

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2539764 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 406.56₴ · invest 612.67₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164999 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075217 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2540984 · The Radiant Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 406.38₴ · invest 616.91₴
rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167146 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075963 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2541689 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 405.90₴ · invest 592.37₴
rare inputs

Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2522255 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 405.88₴ · invest 611.20₴
rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167146 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075963 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2530637 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 405.63₴ · invest 594.04₴
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2541325 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 405.56₴ · invest 594.09₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2527668 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 405.51₴ · invest 593.10₴
rare inputs

P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2540194 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 404.52₴ · invest 603.35₴
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2533026 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 404.41₴ · invest 607.53₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Harvester (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2543584 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 403.87₴ · invest 595.88₴
rare inputs

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164246 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074955 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2524261 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 403.59₴ · invest 596.57₴
rare inputs

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2515167 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 402.47₴ · invest 626.02₴
rare inputs

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167286 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076012 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2523139 · The Chroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 401.64₴ · invest 630.18₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2510826 · The Achroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 401.20₴ · invest 616.95₴
rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167340 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076031 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2543148 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 401.08₴ · invest 600.86₴
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Hunter (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2525654 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 399.88₴ · invest 603.01₴
rare inputs

SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162188 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074239 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2518038 · The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 398.56₴ · invest 608.09₴
rare inputs

P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2535188 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 398.21₴ · invest 624.30₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167387 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076047 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2543301 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 398.00₴ · invest 608.88₴
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167146 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075963 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2508562 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 392.96₴ · invest 716.58₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169802 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076887 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2542541 · The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 392.42₴ · invest 603.40₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166600 instead of 0.161805; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075774 instead of 0.074106
Craft 2528054 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 392.27₴ · invest 608.62₴
rare inputs

SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build