The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −116.63$

Invest 377.01$

Average return 260.38$

ROI −30.9%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest 425.42 $, profit −165.05 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −191.09 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.2939

178.38 $

at 44.60

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4813

198.62 $

at 198.62

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 377.01 $ −116.63 (−30.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.044799

306.94 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

333.41 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

172.55 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

103.93 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

220.69 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

72.56 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

71.09 $ 6.15%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

205.47 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

68.49 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

71.47 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

79.96 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

149.55 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.044799

1 942.39 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

1 797.55 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

699.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

750.38 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.559999

1 136.96 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

559.84 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

598.29 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

537.09 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

638.68 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

422.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

683.96 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.474399

591.37 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 062.62 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −145.61 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −122.68 $ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2547343 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −116.63$ · invest 377.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2547338 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −121.56$ · invest 377.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.380000 instead of 0.293983; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.481300
Craft 2547344 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −121.56$ · invest 377.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.481300; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.380000 instead of 0.293983

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build