The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −195.73$

Invest 421.89$

Average return 226.16$

ROI −46.4%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest 423.68 $, profit −197.51 $

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −240.90 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 2 contracts · medium (by listings)

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

any lot

44.60 $

at 44.60

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Battle-Scarred

any lot

178.67 $

at 59.56

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Battle-Scarred

any lot

198.62 $

at 198.62

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 421.89 $ −195.73 (−46.4%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 17%
Losing outcome 74%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.073500

306.94 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.239687

253.08 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

172.55 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

103.93 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

220.69 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

72.56 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

71.09 $ 6.15%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

205.47 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

68.49 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

71.47 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

79.96 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

149.55 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.073500

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.239687

1 750.55 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

699.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

750.38 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

1 136.96 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

559.84 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

598.29 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

537.09 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

638.68 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

422.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

683.96 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

591.37 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 062.62 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×1.00 44.60 → 44.60 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) × 3 100% of the wear range fits ×1.01 178.67 → 180.46 $

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×1.00 198.62 → 198.62 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.918750000

outcomes come out up to 0.073500, 0.239687, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.000000, 0.073500, 0.239687, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −219.86 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −201.36 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2547345 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −195.73$ · invest 421.89$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2548581 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −204.37$ · invest 375.81$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2548590 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −204.37$ · invest 375.81$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2548582 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −209.41$ · invest 375.81$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.367678 instead of 0.380000; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.629821 instead of 0.640000
Craft 2548591 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −209.41$ · invest 375.81$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.367678 instead of 0.380000; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.629821 instead of 0.640000

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build