to all crafts

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −5.10$

Invest at least 18.07$

Average return 12.97$

ROI −28.2%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 18.07 $, profit at most −5.10 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1.17 $

at 0.59

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

3.57 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

1.51 $

at 0.75

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1.54 $

at 1.54

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.79 $ +5.18 (+66.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

0.71 $

at 0.71

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1655

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

10.77 $

at 1.54

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12.82 $ +9.79 (+76.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

3.57 $

at 0.71

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

1.51 $

at 0.75

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

3.08 $

at 1.54

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.74 $ +6.16 (+70.4%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 29%
Losing outcome 57%
About break-even 14%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

6.44 $ 14.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19.53 $ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

8.85 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

5.51 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

1.00 $ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

8.34 $ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

77.07 $ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

30.14 $ 7.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6.21 $ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.17 → 2.59 $

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 5 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.47 3.57 → 8.83 $

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.51 → 3.33 $

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 1.54 → 3.32 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.069999900

outcomes come out up to 0.041999, 0.069999, 0.036399, 0.034999, 0.175699, 0.036099, 0.055999, 0.047599, 0.069999

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.65 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.19 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2638183 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.72$ · invest 6.12$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Morris (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162328 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074288 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2626596 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.69$ · invest 8.00$
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163409 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 1; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074664 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2610154 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.53$ · invest 8.50$
rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear), P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163747 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074781 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2634905 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.48$ · invest 8.58$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161707 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 1; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074072 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2638026 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.39$ · invest 6.58$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163623 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074738 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2628058 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.39$ · invest 6.77$
rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear), Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161638 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074048 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2619141 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.37$ · invest 5.94$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear), XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161600 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074034 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2614049 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.34$ · invest 7.87$
rare inputs

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162989 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074518 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2636113 · The Radiant Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.22$ · invest 7.69$
rare inputs

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear), M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164351 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074991 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2617157 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.21$ · invest 6.55$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred), M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162127 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074218 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2638027 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.20$ · invest 6.49$
rare inputs

SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162328 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074288 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2634907 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.07$ · invest 8.14$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 1 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162503 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 1; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2613024 · The Breakout Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.81$ · invest 7.93$
rare inputs

P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear), Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163640 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 1; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074744 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2626598 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.73$ · invest 7.68$
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161542 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 1; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074014 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2630278 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.52$ · invest 8.53$
rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear), Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 1 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162705 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 1; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074419 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2635332 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.40$ · invest 6.21$
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear), R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161771 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074094 instead of 0.074264
Craft 2620537 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.40$ · invest 5.43$
rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161830 instead of 0.162260; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074115 instead of 0.074264

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build