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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ascent Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −0.69$

Invest at least 3.53$

Average return 2.84$

ROI −19.6%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 3.53 $, profit at most −0.69 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

0.64 $

at 0.32

souvenirSteam

×4

Nova | Turquoise Pour

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

0.26 $

at 0.06

Steam

×4

Nova | Turquoise Pour

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

0.63 $

at 0.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1.54 $ +1.31 (+85.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

3.77 $

at 0.63

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

2.29 $

at 1.14

souvenirSteam

×2

Nova | Turquoise Pour

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

0.32 $

at 0.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.37 $ +2.33 (+36.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

3.77 $

at 0.63

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

3.43 $

at 1.14

souvenirSteam

×1

Nova | Turquoise Pour

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

0.16 $

at 0.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.36 $ +2.32 (+31.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

2.58 $

at 0.65

Steam

×3

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Drift Wood

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

2.30 $

at 0.77

souvenirSteam

×3

Nova | Turquoise Pour

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

0.48 $

at 0.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.36 $ +2.37 (+44.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 80%

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

Factory New

float up to 0.059999

0.92 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1.54 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P2000 | Royal Baroque

Factory New

float up to 0.059999

0.84 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

Factory New

float up to 0.064999

0.93 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Reef Grief

Factory New

float up to 0.059999

0.88 $ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Humidor

Factory New

float up to 0.049999

4.09 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

float up to 0.054999

8.30 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

4.82 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Purple DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.054999

31.80 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ascent Collection

Variant 2 only The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Bank Collection instead of The Ascent Collection Variant 4 The Overpass 2024 Collection instead of The Ascent Collection Variant 5 The 2021 Vertigo Collection instead of The Ascent Collection Variant 6 The Ancient Collection instead of The Ascent Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.82 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.08 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Ascent Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2669630 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Boreal Collection · profit 1.53$ · invest 1.55$
P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear), SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New) instead of Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear), Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162892 instead of 0.162158
Craft 2670043 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 1.31$ · invest 1.47$
P250 | Sedimentary (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) instead of Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear), Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166323 instead of 0.162158
Craft 2669861 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 1.29$ · invest 1.63$
XM1014 | XoooM (Minimal Wear), XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) instead of Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear), Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162229 instead of 0.162158
Craft 2669760 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Dust 2 Collection · profit 1.25$ · invest 1.44$
MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested), Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear), Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161877 instead of 0.162158
Craft 2669629 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Boreal Collection · profit 1.24$ · invest 1.48$
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear), SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New) instead of Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear), Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162921 instead of 0.162158
Craft 2670044 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 1.19$ · invest 1.47$
P250 | Sedimentary (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New) instead of Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear), Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166816 instead of 0.162158

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ascent Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build