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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −148.99₴

Invest at least 547.49₴

Average return 398.50₴

ROI −27.2%

Chance of profit 24%

With float: invest at least 547.49 ₴, profit at most −148.99 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

74.36 ₴

at 37.18

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

88.55 ₴

at 17.71

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

72.76 ₴

at 24.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 235.67 ₴ +162.83 (+69.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −41 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

126.62 ₴

at 25.32

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

74.36 ₴

at 37.18

Steam

×3

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

53.13 ₴

at 17.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 254.11 ₴ +89.17 (+35.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −15 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

101.30 ₴

at 25.32

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

74.36 ₴

at 37.18

Steam

×4

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

70.84 ₴

at 17.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 246.49 ₴ +107.83 (+43.7%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 68%
Losing outcome 32%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

1 025.39 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

332.83 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

222.28 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

354.21 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

246.79 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

877.22 ₴ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

368.62 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

242.45 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

48.24 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +92.15 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +142.22 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 20 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2697230 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 186.29₴ · invest 243.81₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2700629 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 183.68₴ · invest 211.96₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2676758 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 176.91₴ · invest 238.86₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2702323 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 173.97₴ · invest 225.01₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2673093 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 173.60₴ · invest 224.05₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2701522 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 170.52₴ · invest 201.64₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2683511 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 170.14₴ · invest 214.04₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2704003 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 169.39₴ · invest 223.03₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear), P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3
Craft 2703319 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 168.74₴ · invest 205.86₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2694402 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 168.35₴ · invest 211.28₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2680387 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 166.25₴ · invest 218.30₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2696675 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 162.92₴ · invest 237.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2692865 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 162.66₴ · invest 224.77₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074471 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074471 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2703940 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 162.42₴ · invest 196.81₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2682247 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 161.01₴ · invest 186.62₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074537 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074537 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2703974 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 160.14₴ · invest 208.87₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2684355 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 159.63₴ · invest 250.46₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2685381 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 159.50₴ · invest 195.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2667635 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 146.39₴ · invest 224.23₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074185 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074185 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2686788 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 143.58₴ · invest 183.17₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074793 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074793 instead of 0.074468

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build