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The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −1.49$

Invest at least 6.56$

Average return 5.07$

ROI −22.7%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 6.56 $, profit at most −1.49 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

0.43 $

at 0.14

Steam

×3

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

0.83 $

at 0.28

Steam

×4

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

1.58 $

at 0.39

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2.83 $ +2.24 (+79.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 52%
Losing outcome 48%

at a loss

Galil AR | Connexion

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

2.20 $ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Allure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2.89 $ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

MAG-7 | Monster Call

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3.46 $ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

1.44 $ 12.00%

Steam

at a loss

Tec-9 | Brother

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2.71 $ 12.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

22.81 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.40 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

4.94 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

7.88 $ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.32 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.92 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fracture Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2688904 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2.56$ · invest 3.00$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074261 instead of 0.076708
Craft 2702619 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2.45$ · invest 3.24$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear), Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.076708
Craft 2702990 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 2.36$ · invest 3.16$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074567 instead of 0.076708

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fracture Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build