to all crafts

The Harlequin Collection + The Lake Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −0.33$

Invest at least 0.73$

Average return 0.40$

ROI −45.2%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 0.73 $, profit at most −0.33 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

MP9 | Bee-Tron

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0778

0.12 $

at 0.03

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Byproduct

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

0.13 $

at 0.03

Steam

×2

AUG | Storm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1725

0.06 $

at 0.03

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 0.31 $ +0.09 (+28.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MP9 | Bee-Tron

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

0.03 $

at 0.03

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Byproduct

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.13 $

at 0.03

Steam

×4

AUG | Storm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1644

0.12 $

at 0.03

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

0.04 $

at 0.04

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 0.33 $ +0.04 (+13.2%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 76%
About break-even 4%

at a loss

MP5-SD | Picnic

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

0.26 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Coral Paisley

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

0.28 $ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

best

SSG 08 | Calligrafaux

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1.52 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

Tec-9 | Banana Leaf

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

0.20 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

XM1014 | XoooM

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

0.17 $ 16.00%

Steam

about break-even

AWP | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

0.35 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Night Ops

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

0.23 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

Desert Eagle | Mudder

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

0.23 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Cyanospatter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

0.23 $ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

0.76 $ 4.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Harlequin Collection + The Lake Collection

Variant 2 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 3 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Lake Collection Variant 4 The Radiant Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Italy Collection instead of The Lake Collection Variant 6 only The Lake Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.04 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +0.08 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Harlequin Collection and The Lake Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2667406 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 0.08$ · invest 0.31$
AUG | Sweeper (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Storm (Field-Tested); MP9 | Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; MP9 | Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075693 instead of 0.077839; FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New): 3 pcs instead of 4; FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New): float at most 0.004981 instead of 0.006859

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Harlequin Collection + The Lake Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build