The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −337.80$

Invest at least 1 054.56$

Average return 716.77$

ROI −32.0%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 1 054.56 $, profit at most −337.80 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −99 $

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −79.76 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0092

94.01 $

at 94.01

Steam

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0092

360.04 $

at 90.01

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 454.05 $ +262.72 (+57.9%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −187 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0091

188.02 $

at 94.01

Steam

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0091

270.03 $

at 90.01

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 458.06 $ +158.65 (+34.6%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.5% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −275 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0089

282.04 $

at 94.01

Steam

×2

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0089

180.02 $

at 90.01

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 462.06 $ +54.59 (+11.8%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 56%
Losing outcome 36%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

268.58 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

978.79 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.98 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

320.01 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

959.21 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 118.08 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385.46 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 066.77 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 742.93 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

998.99 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 102.54 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 068.99 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

871.09 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 593.73 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

966.30 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

903.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

990.28 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

650.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 690.53 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

224.76 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 347.39 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

416.96 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

309.29 $ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

210.00 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

246.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

297.17 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 460.89 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 111.40 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

211.42 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

490.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

203.37 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

418.72 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

83.17 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +235.47 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +259.38 $ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Recoil Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2705775 · The Recoil Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 270.02$ · invest 493.05$
profit on prices without salesat least −73 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009587 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2705776 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 270.02$ · invest 493.05$
profit on prices without salesat least −73 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009587 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2706971 · The Recoil Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 264.30$ · invest 448.71$
profit on prices without salesat least −60 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009459 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2706973 · The Prisma Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 264.30$ · invest 448.71$
profit on prices without salesat least −60 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009459 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2707031 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 263.46$ · invest 499.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −80 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.007467 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2707032 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 263.46$ · invest 499.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −80 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.007467 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2707023 · The Recoil Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 262.72$ · invest 454.05$
profit on prices without salesat least −99 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2706829 · The Recoil Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 250.15$ · invest 566.68$
profit on prices without salesat least −127 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2706831 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 250.15$ · invest 566.68$
profit on prices without salesat least −127 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2706801 · The Recoil Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 249.88$ · invest 435.94$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2706803 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 249.88$ · invest 435.94$
profit on prices without salesat least −75 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build