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The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −110.34₴

Invest at least 230.61₴

Average return 120.27₴

ROI −47.9%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 230.61 ₴, profit at most −110.34 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

31.61 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×7

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

41.26 ₴

at 5.89

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

25.85 ₴

at 12.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 98.72 ₴ +21.55 (+21.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −123 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

142.14 ₴

at 28.43

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

126.45 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×1

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

5.89 ₴

at 5.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 274.48 ₴ +6.81 (+2.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

63.22 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×7

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

41.26 ₴

at 5.89

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

12.92 ₴

at 12.92

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 117.41 ₴ +23.00 (+19.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −71 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

56.86 ₴

at 28.43

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

126.45 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Runic

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1666

4.37 ₴

at 4.37

Steam

×3

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

17.68 ₴

at 5.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 205.36 ₴ +15.55 (+7.6%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 44%
Losing outcome 38%
About break-even 18%

at a loss

Galil AR | Connexion

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

96.20 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

MAC-10 | Allure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

134.92 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

MAG-7 | Monster Call

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

152.16 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

75.28 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

about break-even

Tec-9 | Brother

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

117.29 ₴ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

246.79 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

831.86 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

368.90 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

236.96 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

48.63 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −0.53 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +12.33 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Fracture Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2785674 · The Fracture Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 23.35₴ · invest 93.62₴
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074001 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.003501 instead of 0.005533
Craft 2785821 · The Fracture Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 22.83₴ · invest 94.39₴
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076082 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.005322 instead of 0.005533
Craft 2776648 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 22.22₴ · invest 91.51₴
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076113 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.005349 instead of 0.005533
Craft 2785371 · The Fracture Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 21.54₴ · invest 89.29₴
P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074181 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.003658 instead of 0.005533

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build